3423 Nutwood Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77389

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1981 6,555 sqft lot $134/sqft · 10% below area Est $228k · 10% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home located in the peaceful, family-friendly neighborhood of Forest North within the highly sought-after Klein ISD. Vaulted ceilings and abundant windows fill the home with natural light, creating an open and airy feel. The spacious den features a cozy wood-burning fireplace and flows seamlessly into the kitchen, which offers a breakfast bar and a bright breakfast nook—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. This home includes four bedrooms and two bathrooms, with a large primary suite featuring en-suite bath. Enjoy the expansive, fully fenced backyard, ideal for outdoor gatherings and pets.

Key facts

• Breakfast bar
• 6,555 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10981% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $205k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,042
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -10.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3519 Acorn Way Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,576 (+3%)	4mo	$255,000	$162	78
22306 Acorn Valley Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,476 (-3%)	3mo	$245,000	$166	72
22303 Acorn Chase Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,560 (+2%)	7mo	$204,999	$131	72
3115 Peachstone Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-8%)	5mo	$232,000	$165	66
3702 Acorn Way Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,435 (-6%)	6mo	$249,000	$174	63
2918 Beacon Grove St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,406 (-8%)	7mo	$219,999	$156	63
3803 Oak Lace Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+6%)	2mo	$299,000	$186	62
3810 Nutwood Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (+6%)	1mo	$270,995	$168	62
2906 Tall Tree Ridge Way	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,432 (-6%)	7mo	$220,000	$154	59
22826 Acorn Valley Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,456 (-5%)	3mo	$349,000	$240	49
21807 Glenbranch Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,702 (+12%)	7mo	$265,000	$156	44
21719 Long Castle Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (+12%)	1mo	$290,000	$170	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-24,859
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,962
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77389

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$425 /mo · $5,094/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3607 Nutwood Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1299	$2,399	$1.85	43d	1	0.20mi
3402 Almondwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,795	$1.27	12d	1	0.26mi
21771 Mossy Field Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1631	$2,150	$1.32	43d	1	0.84mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,178	$1.38	3d	1	0.98mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 4242 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,210	$1.40	10d	1	0.98mi
4018 Falvel Shadow Creek Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	1458	$1,960	$1.34	11d	1	0.99mi
21400 Big Spring Valley Ave Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1074	$2,370	$2.21	2d	67	1.26mi
3880 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,536	$2.45	2d	29	1.40mi
2953 FM 2920 Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,280	$2.29	2d	23	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $205,000 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Charming home located in the peaceful, family-friendly neighborhood of Forest North within the highly sought-after Klein ISD. Vaulted ceilings and abundant windows fill the home with natural light, creating an open and airy feel. The spacious den features a cozy wood-burning fireplace and flows seamlessly into the kitchen, which offers a breakfast bar and a bright breakfast nook—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. This home includes four bedrooms and two bathrooms, with a large primary suite featuring en-suite bath. Enjoy the expansive, fully fenced backyard, ideal for outdoor gatherings and pets.

15. 2026-04-16
    listed $1,850
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $215,000 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Charming home located in the peaceful, family-friendly neighborhood of Forest North within the highly sought-after Klein ISD. Vaulted ceilings and abundant windows fill the home with natural light, creating an open and airy feel. The spacious den features a cozy wood-burning fireplace and flows seamlessly into the kitchen, which offers a breakfast bar and a bright breakfast nook—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. This home includes four bedrooms and two bathrooms, with a large primary suite featuring en-suite bath. Enjoy the expansive, fully fenced backyard, ideal for outdoor gatherings and pets.

17. 2024-03-09
    historical $1,800
18. 2024-02-10
    price $1,800
19. 2024-02-10
    listed $1,750
20. 2002-11-20
    soldstatus
21. 1997-07-18
    soldstatus $79,667
22. 1997-07-18
    soldstatus $244,188

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,094 · $425/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,094 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$5,094
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$1,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$286
• After-tax cash flow: $2,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,701
• Household income: $140,683
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1191.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.54%
• Current HPI: 236.5688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+157.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-09 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2024-02-10 Price Changed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2024-02-10 Listed for Rent $1,750 HARMLS
• 2002-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $244,188 Public Records
• 1997-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $79,667 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,094 · -7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.