74 Linwood Ave · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$199,888

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1940 6,565 sqft lot $140/sqft · 28% below area Est $280k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OUTSTANDING CONDITION & VALUE! * BRICK FACED * VINYL & ALUM SIDED CAPE COD * FEATURES NATURAL WOODWORK & NUMEROUS UPDATES * INCL FOYER & ENTRY FLRING UPDATED 2026 * LIV/RM W/ ELECTRIC FIREPLACE 2023 * LIVING RM & DINNING RM HAS UPDATED CARPETING 2025 * (HRDWDS UNDER CARPET) * LARGE FAMILY RM W/ SEPERATE ENTRANCE (IN-LAW POSSIBILITIES) OVERLOOKING FULLY FENCED YARD * EAT-IN KITCH W/ UPDATED APPLIANCES * B/I ELEC RANGE 2022 * B/I OVEN 2022 * REFRIGERATOR 2022 * DISHWSHR * C/T BACKSPLSH 2022 * EAT-IN AREA * 2ND FLOOR * TWO LARGE BEDROOMS * BOTH FEATURE GLEAMING HARDWOODS * ONE HAS WALK IN CLOSET AND A WALK THROUGH FLEX RM *

Key facts

• 6,565 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with storage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Brick; Blown-in insulation; Copper plumbing; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Open porch; Awning(s); Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Shed(s) / exterior storage; Other storage; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Built-in oven; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on second level; Bedroom 2 on second level; Convertible bedroom (additional flexible room)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Tile; Linoleum; Luxury vinyl; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Pantry; Natural woodwork; Convertible bedroom; In-law floorplan; Workshop; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater; Tankless water heater; Sump pump in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-33/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $200k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $173,532 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,528
• List price: $199,888
• Delta: -28.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
320 Joseph Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (-6%)	12mo	$251,000	$187	48
127 Bannard Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,263 (-12%)	9mo	$240,000	$190	47
17 Nicholas Dr N	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,281 (-10%)	10mo	$250,000	$195	41
23 Nicholas Ct	0.75mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,458 (+2%)	24mo	$282,000	$193	35
71 Bannard Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+12%)	18mo	$222,500	$138	34
11 Nicholas Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+15%)	24mo	$325,000	$198	13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,748
• Equity at exit: $29,804

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,563
• Equity at exit: $17,283

Cash invested: $55,969 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,905/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $199,408

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,972
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	11d	1	0.49mi
86 Scott St Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1584	$1,450	$0.92	1d	1	0.64mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	3d	1	0.89mi
149 Adam St Tonawanda, NY	1.0	2.5	1772	$1,500	$0.85	43d	1	1.08mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	1d	1	1.19mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	1d	1	1.19mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	17d	1	1.45mi
103 Raintree Is Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	1d	35	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1375-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $199,888 Active 1375-char remark
3. 2025-12-07
   historical
4. 2025-11-04
   price $256,500
5. 2025-09-08
   price $258,900
6. 2025-08-07
   listed $263,900 Active
7. 2001-08-07
   soldstatus $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,905 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,142 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$236/yr (+$20/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,197
• − Property taxes: −$2,905
• − Insurance: −$999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$822
• After-tax cash flow: $789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,888 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-07 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $256,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $258,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $263,900 WNYREIS
• 2001-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,905 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.