410 W Hickory Ave · Orange, TX 77630

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 23 Days on market

Built 2022 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare opportunity, a vacant land where mobile homes are welcome within city limits. Owner finance is available. The land has access to all utilities, is flat clean, 2 driveways (culverts), and has access to an electrical pole, selling as is.

Key facts

• Dual vanity
• Thermopane windows
• Kitchen island

Tags

• BUILT-IN ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
• STAINLESS STEEL VENT-A-HOOD
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• THERMOPANE WINDOWS
• DUAL VANITY
• SEPARATE SOAKER TUB AND SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential manufactured home
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Electric water heater; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• Little Cypress-Mauriceville CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,584 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.15%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $13,525
• Equity at exit: $44,413

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $60,795
• Equity at exit: $59,073

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $464/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,064

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2309 7th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1036	$995	$0.96	13d	1	0.35mi
206 W Dewey Ave Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$777	$0.97	43d	1	0.38mi
2511 N 8th St Unit Left Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	13d	1	0.46mi
1885 E Farragut Ave Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1023	$1,049	$1.02	13d	9	0.46mi
1019 Ruby Ln Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1243	$1,100	$0.88	13d	1	0.56mi
310 S Farragut Ave Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$1,150	$1.59	43d	1	0.59mi
1030 Clairmont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,850	$1.35	21d	1	0.65mi
2318 Pacific St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	13d	1	0.78mi
3 Pacific Cir Orange, TX	4.0	1.0	1361	$1,500	$1.10	21d	1	0.82mi
9 W Eads Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,400	$1.12	43d	1	0.84mi
1500 Link Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,050	$0.97	13d	1	0.95mi
2208 Monterrey Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,200	$1.06	43d	1	1.25mi
3901 Beverly Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,500	$1.10	13d	1	1.25mi
1907 Walnut Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1360	$1,475	$1.08	13d	1	1.26mi
605 N 4th St Unit A Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	860	$900	$1.05	13d	1	1.34mi
605 4th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	13d	1	1.34mi
1010 N 16th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    listed $129,900 Active
17. 2024-02-15
    soldstatus Closed 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    A rare opportunity, a vacant land where mobile homes are welcome within city limits. Owner finance is available. The land has access to all utilities, is flat clean, 2 driveways (culverts), and has access to an electrical pole, selling as is.

18. 2023-10-27
    status Pending 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    A rare opportunity, a vacant land where mobile homes are welcome within city limits. Owner finance is available. The land has access to all utilities, is flat clean, 2 driveways (culverts), and has access to an electrical pole, selling as is.

19. 2023-10-13
    listed $14,999 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    A rare opportunity, a vacant land where mobile homes are welcome within city limits. Owner finance is available. The land has access to all utilities, is flat clean, 2 driveways (culverts), and has access to an electrical pole, selling as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $464 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,913/yr (+$159/mo · 411.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$464
• − Insurance: −$1,447
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,167
• − Management: −$1,167
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$171
• After-tax cash flow: $1,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Cypress-Mauriceville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4827690
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,483
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5473
• State rank: #435 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+766.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $129,900 LAAR
• 2024-02-15 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2023-10-27 Pending — BBOR
• 2023-10-13 Listed $14,999 BBOR

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2021): $464 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.