Plan 2070 Plan · Hitchcock, TX 77563

$245,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,070 sqft · SingleFamily · 388 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel appliances * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Loft * Spacious great room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

Key facts

• Smart thermostat
• Gas range
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• 6-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS

🏗️ New construction. The $245,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,265.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.0% in Hitchcock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#560 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 388 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $210,682 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 388 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,265
• List price: $245,995
• Delta: -8.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26251 Astral Way	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,139 (+3%)	2mo	$299,990	$140	66
1226 Sacred Light Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,069 (-0%)	1mo	$292,990	$142	63
1333 Blue Moon Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,169 (+5%)	3mo	$292,990	$135	54
106 Wedgewood Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,155 (+4%)	2mo	$274,900	$128	52
640 Burlina Rd	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-7%)	2mo	$283,990	$148	50
862 Sand Crab Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,873 (-10%)	1mo	$255,000	$136	50
612 Burlina Rd	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-7%)	2mo	$283,990	$148	50
604 Burlina Rd	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-7%)	3mo	$285,990	$149	49
1341 Blue Moon Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-10%)	1mo	$295,990	$158	45
656 Blackberry Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,231 (+8%)	2mo	$317,810	$142	44
759 Red Mulberry St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,897 (-8%)	3mo	$304,775	$161	43
1234 Sacred Light Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,364 (+14%)	1mo	$318,990	$135	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-56,714
• Equity at exit: $40,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-65,934
• Equity at exit: $23,368

Cash invested: $75,674 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77563

• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,054/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,364

Max offer price $240,840

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-110	+0% $-203	+5% $-297	+10% $-390
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-287	+0% $-203	+5% $-120	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-135	base $-203	+0.5pp $-273	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,566
• Closing costs: $8,108
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	22d	1	1.35mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0–3.5	1872	$2,600	$1.39	0d	12	1.39mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,995 Active 388 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,995 Active 385 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,995 Active 384 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,995 Active 383 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,995 Active 382 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,995 Active 380 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,995 Active 379 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,995 Active 376 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,995 Active 375 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,995 Active 374 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,995 Active 371 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,995 Active 370 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,995 Active 369 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,995 Active 368 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,995 Active 367 DOM
16. 2026-01-22
    price $245,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel appliances * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Loft * Spacious great room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

17. 2025-11-18
    price $250,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel appliances * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Loft * Spacious great room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

18. 2025-11-10
    price $246,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel appliances * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Loft * Spacious great room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

19. 2025-09-16
    price $244,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel appliances * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Loft * Spacious great room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

20. 2025-06-14
    price $239,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel appliances * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Loft * Spacious great room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

21. 2025-05-29
    listed $237,995 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel appliances * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Loft * Spacious great room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,139
• − Property taxes: −$4,054
• − Insurance: −$1,351
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$7,862
• Taxable loss: −$7,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,721
• After-tax cash flow: $-719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the systems and appliances are in good condition. The home is close to amenities and has a good location. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value.
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can attract buyers and renters alike.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can attract buyers and renters alike. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hitchcock

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #560
• US rank: #10752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hitchcock, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 9,955
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,955
• Household income: $75,806
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 317.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.04%
• Current HPI: 261.4711
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $245,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $250,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $246,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $244,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $239,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-29 Listed $237,995 Zillow