Plan 2070 Plan · Hitchcock, TX 77563

$245,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,070 sqft · SingleFamily · 436 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel appliances * Smart thermostat * 5-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Loft * Spacious great room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to ocean * Community park * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Volleyball court * Walking paths

Key facts

• Smart thermostat
• Gas range
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• 6-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS

🏗️ New construction. The $245,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,468.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 1.6% in Hitchcock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#560 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: 352 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 436 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,444 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 436 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.66%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,468
• List price: $245,995
• Delta: -9.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26251 Astral Way	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,139 (+3%)	3mo	$299,990	$140	65
828 Grassy Knoll Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,070 (0%)	2mo	$260,000	$126	63
1226 Sacred Light Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,069 (-0%)	3mo	$292,990	$142	62
873 Grassy Knoll Trl	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,140 (+3%)	1mo	$310,000	$145	58
622 Cherry Tree Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (-3%)	1mo	$305,900	$152	53
1085 Garnet Star Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-10%)	2mo	$306,990	$164	49
640 Burlina Rd	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-7%)	3mo	$283,990	$148	49
862 Sand Crab Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,873 (-10%)	3mo	$255,000	$136	48
612 Burlina Rd	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-7%)	4mo	$283,990	$148	48
1341 Blue Moon Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-10%)	2mo	$295,990	$158	43
656 Blackberry Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,231 (+8%)	3mo	$317,810	$142	43
1234 Sacred Light Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,364 (+14%)	3mo	$318,990	$135	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-74,572
• Equity at exit: $40,328

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-104,451
• Equity at exit: $23,385

Cash invested: $75,731 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 111 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.3 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $290,600 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 101 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77563

• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,418
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,057/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,366

Max offer price $200,557

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-296	-5% $-390	+0% $-483	+5% $-577	+10% $-670
Rent	-10% $-622	-5% $-552	+0% $-483	+5% $-414	+10% $-345
Rate	-1.0pp $-347	-0.5pp $-414	base $-483	+0.5pp $-553	+1.0pp $-625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,617
• Closing costs: $8,114
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6218 Red Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,472	$1.05	0d	1	0.89mi
6315 Red Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,601	$1.14	0d	1	0.93mi
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	69d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $245,995 Active 436 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $245,995 Active 434 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $245,995 Active 433 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $245,995 Active 432 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $245,995 Active 431 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $245,995 Active 428 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $245,995 Active 426 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $245,995 Active 425 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $245,995 Active 423 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $245,995 Active 421 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $245,995 Active 420 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $245,995 Active 419 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $245,995 Active 418 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $245,995 Active 417 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $245,995 Active 415 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $245,995 Active 414 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $245,995 Active 413 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $245,995 Active 412 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $245,995 Active 411 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $245,995 Active 410 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $245,995 Active 409 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $245,995 Active 408 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $245,995 Active 407 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $245,995 Active 406 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $245,995 Active 404 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $245,995 Active 403 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $245,995 Active 402 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $245,995 Active 401 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $245,995 Active 400 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $245,995 Active 399 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $245,995 Active 398 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $245,995 Active 397 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $245,995 Active 396 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $245,995 Active 395 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $245,995 Active 394 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $245,995 Active 393 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $245,995 Active 391 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $245,995 Active 389 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $245,995 Active 388 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $245,995 Active 385 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $245,995 Active 384 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $245,995 Active 383 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $245,995 Active 382 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $245,995 Active 380 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $245,995 Active 379 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $245,995 Active 376 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,995 Active 375 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,995 Active 374 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,995 Active 371 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,995 Active 370 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,150
• − Property taxes: −$4,057
• − Insurance: −$1,352
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$7,868
• Taxable loss: −$10,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,578
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,350–$31,050 screening

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the systems and appliances are in good condition. The home is close to amenities and has a good location. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can attract buyers and renters alike. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hitchcock Pri Middle Crosby Middle F TX #1,103/1,662 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Hitchcock H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Hitchcock

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #560
• US rank: #10752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hitchcock, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 9,955
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,955
• Household income: $75,806
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.04%
• Current HPI: 261.4711
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $245,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $250,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $246,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $244,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $239,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-29 Listed $237,995 Zillow