11 Walke Way · Mechanicville, NY 12118

$489,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

0.30 ac lot $288/sqft · 27% below area Est $669k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* TO BE BUILT* Harper Estates is a 34-unit twin townhome community located in the Town of Halfmoon, 6 minutes from I-87 and just minutes away from Clifton Park shopping. This home comes with a spacious floor plan and beautiful, mountain view. Kitchen includes 36-inch cabinets with crown molding, 4-foot Island, quartz counter tops and stainless-steel appliances. Living room offers vaulted ceilings with gas fireplace and LVP flooring. Primary bedroom, primary bath and laundry are on first floor. Second floor features 2 bedrooms, full bath, loft, and bonus room. Full basement for plenty of storage and an attached two car garage.

Key facts

• 4 foot island
• 36 inch cabinets
• Mountain view

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEW
• 36 INCH CABINETS
• CROWN MOLDING
• 4 FOOT ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (52.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (58.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (58.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#568 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, employment D.
• Mechanicville City School District (rural): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #270 of 590 in NY (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $201,983 (58.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.66%
• DSCR: 0.30
• GRM: 20.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $668,728
• List price: $489,900
• Delta: -26.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Vosburgh Rd	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+2%)	15mo	$525,100	$301	51
6 Meridian Ct	0.58mi	3/3.0	1,580 (-7%)	23mo	$625,000	$396	40
23 Bedford Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-3%)	23mo	$480,000	$291	40
41 Mcbride Rd	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,926 (+13%)	3mo	$713,850	$371	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $152,842
• Equity at exit: $441,341

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $539,804
• Equity at exit: $951,768

Cash invested: $137,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12118

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 20.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,569
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$612 /mo · $7,348/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-1,790

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,286

Max offer price $230,895

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,451	-5% $-1,621	+0% $-1,790	+5% $-1,959	+10% $-2,128
Rent	-10% $-1,949	-5% $-1,870	+0% $-1,790	+5% $-1,710	+10% $-1,630
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,543	-0.5pp $-1,665	base $-1,790	+0.5pp $-1,917	+1.0pp $-2,046

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,475
• Closing costs: $14,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $489,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $489,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $489,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $489,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $489,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $489,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $489,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $489,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $489,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $489,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $489,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,900 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,900 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $489,900 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    * TO BE BUILT* Harper Estates is a 34-unit twin townhome community located in the Town of Halfmoon, 6 minutes from I-87 and just minutes away from Clifton Park shopping. This home comes with a spacious floor plan and beautiful, mountain view. Kitchen includes 36-inch cabinets with crown molding, 4-foot Island, quartz counter tops and stainless-steel appliances. Living room offers vaulted ceilings with gas fireplace and LVP flooring. Primary bedroom, primary bath and laundry are on first floor. Second floor features 2 bedrooms, full bath, loft, and bonus room. Full basement for plenty of storage and an attached two car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,442
• − Property taxes: −$7,348
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − Depreciation: −$14,252
• Taxable loss: −$31,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,472
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mechanicville City School District
• NCES district ID: 3618900
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,701
• Composite: 49.33/100
• National rank: #2021
• State rank: #270 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mechanicville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #568
• US rank: #10227

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 17,069
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,069
• Household income: $92,710
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 552.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 8% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 343.9893
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $489,900 Global MLS