3513 E Buffalo Ln · Hernando, FL 34442

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1973 5,583 sqft lot Est $80k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this tastefully remodeled Mobile Home near Hernando Lake and the Tsala Apopka chain of lakes in the Town of Hernando in Citrus County, Florida. An adorable renovated mobile home with two bedrooms and one bathroom, large screened lanai/sunroom area, double carport, and storage shed, great for boating and fishing with nearby boat ramps. There is also an adjacent lot (separate lot and Alt Key #1594197 offered in MLS #853781) located behind the home with a chain link fence along with a gate accessing the mobile home property for storing your boat or enjoying more land to appreciate. Inside the quaint home you will find all new double paned windows, mini split air conditioner, stainles

Key facts

• Double carport
• Storage shed
• Large screened lanai

Tags

• RENOVATED MOBILE HOME
• LARGE SCREENED LANAI
• DOUBLE CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• NEARBY BOAT RAMPS
• CHAIN LINK FENCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; Attached carport; Driveway; Paved parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Entry level: One
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Metal roof; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Storage building; Workshop; Level, rectangular, wooded lot; Paved road frontage on a county road; Additional parcels included

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Water softener (owned)
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Master suite on the ground floor; Blinds and window treatments; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $85k implies a 325% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.02%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,968
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3513 E Buffalo Ln	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	0mo	$80,000	$119	100
3560 E Squaw Valley Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	644 (-4%)	11mo	$122,000	$189	72
4794 N Apache Trl	0.10mi	2/1.0	762 (+13%)	1mo	$85,000	$112	72
5247 N Redwood Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	673 (+0%)	7mo	$108,000	$160	65
2948 E Blackberry Ln	0.59mi	2/1.0	616 (-8%)	14mo	$70,000	$114	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $24,140
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $69,835
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,449 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $817/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $643	-5% $619	+0% $595	+5% $571	+10% $547
Rent	-10% $481	-5% $538	+0% $595	+5% $653	+10% $710
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $617	base $595	+0.5pp $573	+1.0pp $551

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-14
   listed $85,000 Active
2. 2015-07-24
   soldstatus $20,000
3. 1995-04-01
   soldstatus $25,000
4. 1984-02-01
   soldstatus $18,000
5. 1978-07-01
   soldstatus $15,000
6. 1977-02-01
   soldstatus $11,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$817
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,391
• − Management: −$1,391
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $5,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+626.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $85,000 RACC
• 2015-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1984-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1978-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1977-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $817 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.