3428 River Birch Dr · Flint, MI 48532

$104,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,646 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 1968 2,614 sqft lot $63/sqft · 39% below area Est $171k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome with walkout basement in a convenient Flint Township location! This well-maintained property offers comfortable living with spacious bedrooms and a functional layout perfect for owner-occupants or investors alike. Ideally situated close to McLaren Hospital, major highways, shopping, and a variety of restaurants, providing easy access to everything you need. Unique opportunity: the seller owns all five townhomes in the complex and is willing to entertain a reasonable offer for the entire package—perfect for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a multi-unit property. Don’t miss this versatile and value-packed opportunity!

Key facts

• 2,614 sq ft lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Carman-Ainsworth Community Schools (suburban): math 12% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #468 of 540 in MI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $104k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $97,760 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.30%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,867
• List price: $104,000
• Delta: -39.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4075 Townview Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,637 (-0%)	3mo	$178,000	$109	80
1206 River Forest Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,636 (-1%)	11mo	$175,000	$107	77
1069 Lask St	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,754 (+7%)	13mo	$67,500	$38	61
4124 Townview Dr	0.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,606 (-2%)	14mo	$166,500	$104	59
1195 River Valley Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+7%)	9mo	$215,000	$122	59
1137 S Graham Rd	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,518 (-8%)	3mo	$195,000	$128	57
1068 S Graham Rd	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,440 (-12%)	5mo	$169,900	$118	50
1095 Cora Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,824 (+11%)	10mo	$168,000	$92	50
3561 Ridgecliffe Dr	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,792 (+9%)	17mo	$91,000	$51	45
1412 Mitson Blvd	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,436 (-13%)	22mo	$101,000	$70	36
3079 Walton Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+6%)	22mo	$100,000	$57	35
3357 Jacque St	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,501 (-9%)	18mo	$195,000	$130	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $617
• Equity at exit: $15,507

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $23,063
• Equity at exit: $8,992

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48532

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,418/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $895

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3713 Gratiot Ave Flint, MI	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	21d	1	0.91mi
2544 Tyrone St Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	1440	$825	$0.57	13d	1	1.05mi
410 Allendale Pl Flint, MI	4.0	1.5	2000	$1,500	$0.75	21d	1	1.09mi
2428 Norbert St Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	21d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $109,000 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Clean, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome with walkout basement in a convenient Flint Township location! This well-maintained property offers comfortable living with spacious bedrooms and a functional layout perfect for owner-occupants or investors alike. Ideally situated close to McLaren Hospital, major highways, shopping, and a variety of restaurants, providing easy access to everything you need. Unique opportunity: the seller owns all five townhomes in the complex and is willing to entertain a reasonable offer for the entire package—perfect for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a multi-unit property. Don’t miss this versatile and value-packed opportunity!

17. 2026-05-01
    price $109,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Clean, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome with walkout basement in a convenient Flint Township location! This well-maintained property offers comfortable living with spacious bedrooms and a functional layout perfect for owner-occupants or investors alike. Ideally situated close to McLaren Hospital, major highways, shopping, and a variety of restaurants, providing easy access to everything you need. Unique opportunity: the seller owns all five townhomes in the complex and is willing to entertain a reasonable offer for the entire package - perfect for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a multi-unit property. Don't miss this versatile and value-packed opportunity!

18. 2026-04-14
    listed $115,000 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Clean, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome with walkout basement in a convenient Flint Township location! This well-maintained property offers comfortable living with spacious bedrooms and a functional layout perfect for owner-occupants or investors alike. Ideally situated close to McLaren Hospital, major highways, shopping, and a variety of restaurants, providing easy access to everything you need. Unique opportunity: the seller owns all five townhomes in the complex and is willing to entertain a reasonable offer for the entire package - perfect for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a multi-unit property. Don't miss this versatile and value-packed opportunity!

19. 2026-04-14
    listed $115,000 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Clean, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome with walkout basement in a convenient Flint Township location! This well-maintained property offers comfortable living with spacious bedrooms and a functional layout perfect for owner-occupants or investors alike. Ideally situated close to McLaren Hospital, major highways, shopping, and a variety of restaurants, providing easy access to everything you need. Unique opportunity: the seller owns all five townhomes in the complex and is willing to entertain a reasonable offer for the entire package - perfect for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a multi-unit property. Don't miss this versatile and value-packed opportunity!

20. 2018-12-20
    historical
21. 2003-08-13
    soldstatus $61,500
22. 2003-08-07
    soldstatus $61,500
23. 2003-08-07
    soldstatus $61,500
24. 2003-06-03
    historical
25. 2003-05-10
    listed $68,900
26. 2003-05-10
    listed $68,900
27. 1999-01-09
    listed $65,000
28. 1999-01-09
    listed $65,000
29. 1998-09-08
    historical
30. 1998-09-08
    historical
31. 1998-03-23
    listed $69,900
32. 1998-03-23
    listed $69,900
33. 1996-09-13
    soldstatus $62,000
34. 1996-09-13
    soldstatus $62,000
35. 1996-04-23
    listed $72,500
36. 1996-04-23
    listed $72,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,418 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$92/yr (+$8/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$1,418
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,192
• − Management: −$1,192
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable income: $1,728
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$415
• After-tax cash flow: $2,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carman-Ainsworth Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2607890
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,394
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9149
• State rank: #468 of 540 in MI

Livability — Flint

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4946

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 93,814
• Population (ZIP): 19,750

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 38% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Arabic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.08%
• Current HPI: 202.407
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+50.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $109,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $109,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-12-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 2003-08-07 Sold (MLS) $61,500 REALCOMP
• 2003-08-07 Sold (MLS) $61,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-06-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-05-10 Listed $68,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-05-10 Listed $68,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-01-09 Listed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-01-09 Listed $65,000 REALCOMP
• 1998-09-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1998-09-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1998-03-23 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 1998-03-23 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-09-13 Sold (MLS) $62,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-09-13 Sold (MLS) $62,000 REALCOMP
• 1996-04-23 Listed $72,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-04-23 Listed $72,500 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,418 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.