30564 Blue Jay Cir · Princess Anne, MD 21853

$154,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $126/sqft · 37% below area Est $248k · 37% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this beautiful, brand new home located in the Wilson Landing community. This line is called beautiful morning and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, as well as a functional, yet stylish kitchen, perfect for entertaining. Beautiful Morning is a well appointed home, offering plenty of storage space and a private laundry room. Enjoy the en suite bathroom off of the main bedroom, with a walk in shower and dual vanity sinks. The community is close proximity to local markets, grocery, recreations, as well as dining.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Private laundry room
• Walk in shower

Tags

• WILSON LANDING COMMUNITY
• FUNCTIONAL STYLISH KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF STORAGE SPACE
• PRIVATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.6% in Princess Anne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#431 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, crime F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $136,395 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.07%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,985
• List price: $154,995
• Delta: -37.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10448 Pidgeon Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	4mo	$38,000	$32	84
30874 Dublin Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+7%)	22mo	$297,000	$226	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $45,548
• Equity at exit: $88,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $129,466
• Equity at exit: $152,765

Cash invested: $43,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21853

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $154,995

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,749
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10800 Clipper Cir Princess Anne, MD	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,295	$1.13	44d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $154,995 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $154,995 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $154,995 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $154,995 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-01-26
   price $154,995 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Check out this beautiful, brand new home located in the Wilson Landing community. This line is called beautiful morning and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, as well as a functional, yet stylish kitchen, perfect for entertaining. Beautiful Morning is a well appointed home, offering plenty of storage space and a private laundry room. Enjoy the en suite bathroom off of the main bedroom, with a walk in shower and dual vanity sinks. The community is close proximity to local markets, grocery, recreations, as well as dining.

6. 2025-12-27
   listed $160,000 Active 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Check out this beautiful, brand new home located in the Wilson Landing community. This line is called beautiful morning and features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, as well as a functional, yet stylish kitchen, perfect for entertaining. Beautiful Morning is a well appointed home, offering plenty of storage space and a private laundry room. Enjoy the en suite bathroom off of the main bedroom, with a walk in shower and dual vanity sinks. The community is close proximity to local markets, grocery, recreations, as well as dining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$179
• After-tax cash flow: $1,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This beautiful, brand new home in Wilson Landing community is move-in ready with excellent condition and high ROI updates available.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Rental Adding a small front porch — Attracts renters and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental Adding a small front porch — Attracts renters and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Princess Anne

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #24481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Somerset County · 10,537 people
• City population: 10,537
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 10,537
• Household income: $69,697
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 349.0

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 38% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Ukrainian 3% Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Arabic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.05%
• Current HPI: 285.8789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $154,995 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-27 Listed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS