2312 Peninsula Dr · Erie, PA 16506

$249,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1954 9,148 sqft lot Est $210k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION! Close to Sanded Beaches, Hiking Paths, Restaurants and all the necessities. With 3 beds & 2 full baths. Finished lower level has game room, full bath with bedroom/office. Enjoy you fenced-in backyard and oversized garage with attached work shop/slash storage area. Plenty of areas for office space and the remote worker.

Key facts

• New vanity
• Central a/c
• New countertops

Tags

• UPDATED MILLCREEK RANCH HOME
• NEW WOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD REFINISHED
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW VANITY
• CENTRAL A/C

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in MU zoning; Subdivision: Evans Estate

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; 13 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $249k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $200,312 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2653 W 25th St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,253 (-2%)	4mo	$170,000	$136	80
2845 W 31st St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+2%)	1mo	$219,900	$169	69
3233 W 22nd St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,312 (+3%)	7mo	$216,000	$165	69
3118 Greeley Ave	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (+2%)	4mo	$285,000	$220	58
3025 Berkley Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-5%)	5mo	$175,000	$145	53
3001 Highland Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,139 (-10%)	0mo	$240,000	$211	50
3026 Caton St	0.60mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (+10%)	1mo	$216,000	$154	49
2808 Greeley Ave	0.39mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,446 (+14%)	5mo	$229,000	$158	48
3002 Bement St	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-6%)	7mo	$195,000	$163	47
3233 W 26 St	0.48mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,437 (+13%)	3mo	$188,000	$131	47
2901 Legion Rd	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (-13%)	6mo	$200,000	$181	46
2718 Wellington Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,423 (+12%)	3mo	$260,000	$183	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,678
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-46,647
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16506

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,079/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,109

Max offer price $234,228

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2857 Willowood Dr Unit 2901 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	43d	1	0.84mi
3158 W 40th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,280	$1.25	43d	1	1.09mi
4024 Canterbury Dr Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1044	$1,350	$1.29	43d	1	1.10mi
2412 Powell Ave Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	43d	1	1.25mi
4500 Hammocks Dr Erie, PA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1312	$3,270	$2.49	43d	7	1.31mi
3630 W 10th St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	43d	1	1.34mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 542401 Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1327	$2,160	$1.63	43d	1	1.35mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536404 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,290	$1.62	43d	1	1.35mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536204 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,275	$1.61	43d	1	1.35mi
3738 W 12th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,180	$1.28	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $249,000 Active
2. 2022-10-28
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   GREAT LOCATION! Close to Sanded Beaches, Hiking Paths, Restaurants and all the necessities. With 3 beds & 2 full baths. Finished lower level has game room, full bath with bedroom/office. Enjoy you fenced-in backyard and oversized garage with attached work shop/slash storage area. Plenty of areas for office space and the remote worker.

3. 2022-10-28
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   GREAT LOCATION! Close to Sanded Beaches, Hiking Paths, Restaurants and all the necessities. With 3 beds & 2 full baths. Finished lower level has game room, full bath with bedroom/office. Enjoy you fenced-in backyard and oversized garage with attached work shop/slash storage area. Plenty of areas for office space and the remote worker.

4. 2022-10-28
   soldstatus $165,000

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   GREAT LOCATION! Close to Sanded Beaches, Hiking Paths, Restaurants and all the necessities. With 3 beds & 2 full baths. Finished lower level has game room, full bath with bedroom/office. Enjoy you fenced-in backyard and oversized garage with attached work shop/slash storage area. Plenty of areas for office space and the remote worker.

5. 2022-10-12
   status Pending
6. 2022-10-10
   status Pending 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   GREAT LOCATION! Close to Sanded Beaches, Hiking Paths, Restaurants and all the necessities. With 3 beds & 2 full baths. Finished lower level has game room, full bath with bedroom/office. Enjoy you fenced-in backyard and oversized garage with attached work shop/slash storage area. Plenty of areas for office space and the remote worker.

7. 2022-10-10
   status Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   GREAT LOCATION! Close to Sanded Beaches, Hiking Paths, Restaurants and all the necessities. With 3 beds & 2 full baths. Finished lower level has game room, full bath with bedroom/office. Enjoy you fenced-in backyard and oversized garage with attached work shop/slash storage area. Plenty of areas for office space and the remote worker.

8. 2022-09-30
   listed $175,000 Active
9. 2022-09-26
   listed $175,000 Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   GREAT LOCATION! Close to Sanded Beaches, Hiking Paths, Restaurants and all the necessities. With 3 beds & 2 full baths. Finished lower level has game room, full bath with bedroom/office. Enjoy you fenced-in backyard and oversized garage with attached work shop/slash storage area. Plenty of areas for office space and the remote worker.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,079 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,506 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: +$428/yr (+$36/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,079
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$5,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,278
• After-tax cash flow: $274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,070
• Household income: $81,060
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.21%
• Current HPI: 228.7506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+42.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $249,000 GEBOR
• 2022-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) $165,000 West Penn MLS
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) $165,000 GEBOR
• 2022-10-12 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2022-10-10 Pending — GEBOR
• 2022-10-10 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2022-09-30 Listed $175,000 West Penn MLS
• 2022-09-26 Listed $175,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,079 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.