420 Glen Arven Dr · Thomasville, GA 31792

$128,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1958 0.31 ac lot Est $196k · 34% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering comfort, convenience, and value! This inviting property features a spacious kitchen and dining room combination, creating the perfect space for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on a great-sized lot with plenty of outdoor potential. Priced to sell, this home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for an affordable place to call home. Don't miss out on this wonderful value!

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; 1 covered parking space; Open parking available
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level / single-story; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Slab foundation; Built as single-story
• Exterior features: Porch; Metal roof

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; Ceiling fan(s); Central heating; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.7% in Thomasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#77 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, commute F.
• Thomasville City (town): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #87 of 174 in GA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.36%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,020
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 Glen Arven Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,190 (+0%)	14mo	$165,850	$139	82
1608 Redwood Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	12mo	$245,000	$199	62
334 Woodridge Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+7%)	9mo	$154,000	$121	57
502 Tanglewood Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+10%)	20mo	$216,000	$165	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $12,303
• Equity at exit: $19,227

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $53,292
• Equity at exit: $11,149

Cash invested: $36,106 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31792

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $268/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $952

Max offer price $128,950

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,238
• Closing costs: $3,868
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Ginny Ln Thomasville, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0	854	$1,300	$1.52	43d	2	0.52mi
105 Old Boston Rd Thomasville, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,374	$1.15	43d	1	0.59mi
220 Covington Ave Thomasville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	43d	10	1.27mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $128,950 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,950 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,950 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,950 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,950 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,950 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $128,950 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,950 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,950 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,950 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,950 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 466-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $128,950 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $268 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,186 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$919/yr (+$77/mo · 343.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,223
• − Property taxes: −$268
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$3,751
• Taxable income: $4,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,050
• After-tax cash flow: $5,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thomasville City
• NCES district ID: 1304950
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,040
• Composite: 26.85/100
• National rank: #7106
• State rank: #87 of 174 in GA

Livability — Thomasville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #6678

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thomasville, GA
• County: Thomas County · 22,962 people
• City population: 22,962
• Metro: Thomasville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,962
• Household income: $50,460
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1059.0

Population outlook (Thomas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,303 people
• By 2030: 45,052 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 44,034 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,310 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 37,569 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 30,676 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 47% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thomas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.17%
• Current HPI: 228.0107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Thomasville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $128,950 MBOR
• 2026-06-02 Listed $128,950 TABRMLS
• 2025-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-21 Pending — TABRMLS
• 2025-02-24 Relisted — TABRMLS
• 2025-02-24 Pending — TABRMLS
• 2025-02-19 Delisted — TABRMLS
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $165,000 TABRMLS
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $180,000 TABRMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listed $199,000 TABRMLS
• 2024-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-11 Sold (MLS) $90,000 TABRMLS
• 2024-02-27 Pending — TABRMLS
• 2024-02-20 Relisted — TABRMLS
• 2024-02-20 Price Changed $115,000 TABRMLS
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed $139,800 TABRMLS
• 2023-11-10 Price Changed $139,900 TABRMLS
• 2023-10-31 Listed $140,000 TABRMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $268 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.