20502 Moonrise River Ln · Houston, TX 77433

$231,467

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2009 6,869 sqft lot $171/sqft · at area comps Est $237k · at est. $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 20502 Moonrise River Ln in Cypress, TX! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable open layout. Located in a Cul-de-sac. The split floorplan gives the primary suite added privacy, while the kitchen opens to the living and dining areas for easy everyday living. This home also features a new roof for added peace of mind. Conveniently located near Grand Parkway (99), shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Split floorplan
• Cul-de-sac
• New roof

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• NEW ROOF
• SPLIT FLOORPLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Canyon Village at Cypress association; Annual association fee of $574

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage parking (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2009; Single-level entry; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, Disposal, Gas Oven, Gas Range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 12x12, 12x12, 14x14)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Electric dryer hookup; Dishwasher, Disposal, Gas Oven, Gas Range
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $231k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hopper Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 930 students, 80% FRL); Cypress Springs H S (math 35% / reading 60%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,788 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 43% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2065 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,791 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,023
• List price: $231,467
• Delta: -2.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20731 Cypress Post Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+4%)	4mo	$229,900	$164	82
20615 Moonrise River Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+4%)	4mo	$240,000	$171	82
7238 Cypress Prairie Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	10mo	$225,000	$161	67
7319 Rising Brook Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+0%)	11mo	$210,000	$155	67
7430 Riven Oaks Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,469 (+9%)	10mo	$245,000	$167	52
7303 Rising Brook Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,157 (-14%)	0mo	$205,000	$177	52
21042 Salt Rock Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+14%)	6mo	$319,900	$207	52
21050 Salt Rock Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+14%)	6mo	$299,900	$194	50
21115 Montego Bay Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+5%)	10mo	$315,138	$223	50
7807 Meandering Oak Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+13%)	9mo	$260,000	$171	44
19943 Sycamore Valley Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,519 (+12%)	2mo	$225,000	$148	40
7331 River Pines Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,505 (+11%)	8mo	$245,000	$163	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-51,340
• Equity at exit: $34,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-77,996
• Equity at exit: $20,013

Cash invested: $64,811 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2065
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,214
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,108/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,258

Max offer price $209,791

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8	-5% $-57	+0% $-123	+5% $-188	+10% $-254
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-206	+0% $-123	+5% $-40	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-64	base $-123	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,867
• Closing costs: $6,944
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	44d	1	0.37mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,199	$1.14	13d	21	0.40mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	44d	1	0.41mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	25d	1	0.41mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	44d	1	0.46mi
20126 Breezy Oak Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,100	$1.26	5d	1	0.55mi
20123 Braley Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,976	$1.14	0d	1	0.64mi
20211 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$2,500	$2.35	0d	26	0.67mi
19943 Crested Hill Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,621	$1.35	8d	1	0.68mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$2,450	$1.37	0d	41	0.69mi
20978 Farm to Market Road 529 Unit SWFS2 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,725	$1.68	3d	1	0.72mi
20978 Farm to Market Road 529 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,725	$1.68	44d	1	0.72mi
20217 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,565	$1.41	44d	1	0.73mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	44d	1	0.74mi
19917 Stoney Haven Dr Cypress, TX	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,579	$1.49	44d	1	0.79mi
19939 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,105	$2.26	2d	15	0.80mi
8357 Fry Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	0d	1	0.83mi
8357 Fry Rd Unit FCC Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	12d	1	0.83mi
20735 Dewberry Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$1,756	$1.09	23d	1	0.90mi
7911 Tuscan Cypress Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1730	$2,475	$1.43	44d	1	0.91mi
6810 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,683	$2.33	0d	58	0.96mi
19903 Mountain Dale Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,896	$1.40	0d	1	1.01mi
7850 Maverick Trace Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1852	$1,875	$1.01	44d	1	1.05mi
21035 Carmel Valley Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,791	$1.25	25d	1	1.05mi
20507 Barker Bend Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,825	$1.23	44d	1	1.11mi
19715 Swan Valley Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,886	$1.37	44d	1	1.12mi
6506 Garden Canyon Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,895	$1.03	23d	1	1.27mi
7558 Magnolia Orchid Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1743	$2,390	$1.37	44d	1	1.28mi
6619 Rusty Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,895	$1.31	4d	1	1.29mi
19442 Elmtree Estates Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,776	$1.02	13d	1	1.31mi
21447 FM 529 Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,205	$2.21	0d	28	1.31mi
19434 Glenway Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	44d	1	1.40mi
6402 Wild River Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,091	$1.33	3d	1	1.45mi
6747 Scarlet Sagebrush St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,300	$1.50	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $231,467 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $231,467 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $231,467 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $231,467 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $231,467 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $231,467 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $231,467 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $231,467 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $241,467 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $241,467 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $241,467 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $241,467 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $241,467 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $241,467 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $241,467 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $241,467 Active 414-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,108 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,108 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,966
• − Property taxes: −$5,108
• − Insurance: −$1,157
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$6,734
• Taxable loss: −$5,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $-190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $231,467 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $241,467 HARMLS

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,108 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.