9421 Autumn Vale Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$345,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,710 sqft · Land · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 4,133 sqft lot $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into style and comfort with this stunning 2-story, 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 1710 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring a 2-car garage, this home combines functionality with modern elegance. All bedrooms are located upstairs with Flex Space for an office, playroom, work-out space etc. The private primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample space and natural light. Downstairs, the chef-inspired kitchen showcases warm cabinetry throughout, quartz countertops, and flows seamlessly into the living room with a cozy electric fireplace. Upgrades include natural wood-look tile in main living areas, plush upgraded carpet with ½" pad in bedrooms and closets, and stylish finishes throughout. *Home is under construction - est. completion June 2026 - photos are representative*

Key facts

• 4,133 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $345k).
• Recommended offer: $340k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.7% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $97k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $339,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.11%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $28,562
• Equity at exit: $72,356

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $93,496
• Equity at exit: $67,020

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,178/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$904
• Net cashflow: $1,216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,763

Max offer price $345,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.49mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	0.66mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $345,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $345,000 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Step into style and comfort with this stunning 2-story, 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 1710 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring a 2-car garage, this home combines functionality with modern elegance. All bedrooms are located upstairs with Flex Space for an office, playroom, work-out space etc. The private primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample space and natural light. Downstairs, the chef-inspired kitchen showcases warm cabinetry throughout, quartz countertops, and flows seamlessly into the living room with a cozy electric fireplace. Upgrades include natural wood-look tile in main living areas, plush upgraded carpet with ½" pad in bedrooms and closets, and stylish finishes throughout. *Home is under construction - est. completion June 2026 - photos are representative*

15. 2026-05-19
    listed $361,790 Active 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Step into style and comfort with this stunning 2-story, 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 1710 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring a 2-car garage, this home combines functionality with modern elegance. All bedrooms are located upstairs with Flex Space for an office, playroom, work-out space etc. The private primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample space and natural light. Downstairs, the chef-inspired kitchen showcases warm cabinetry throughout, quartz countertops, and flows seamlessly into the living room with a cozy electric fireplace. Upgrades include natural wood-look tile in main living areas, plush upgraded carpet with ½" pad in bedrooms and closets, and stylish finishes throughout. *Home is under construction - est. completion June 2026 - photos are representative*

16. 2026-05-15
    status Active 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    The Château Collection | The Cheverny | 1,710 Sq. Ft. | Two Story | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | Covered Patio | 2-Car Garage

17. 2026-05-15
    price $350,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    The Château Collection | The Cheverny | 1,710 Sq. Ft. | Two Story | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | Covered Patio | 2-Car Garage

18. 2026-05-15
    historical 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    The Château Collection | The Cheverny | 1,710 Sq. Ft. | Two Story | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | Covered Patio | 2-Car Garage

19. 2026-03-10
    listed $344,240 Active 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    The Château Collection | The Cheverny | 1,710 Sq. Ft. | Two Story | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | Covered Patio | 2-Car Garage

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,178 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,314 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,136/yr (+$428/mo · 436.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$1,178
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,131
• − Management: −$4,131
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable income: $9,528
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,287
• After-tax cash flow: $12,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $361,790 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $350,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-10 Listed $344,240 Zillow