217 Bardwell Way · Niederwald, TX 78610

$296,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,938 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $153/sqft · 12% below area Est $337k · 12% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out 217 Bardwell Way featured in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,938 square feet of living space across 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and 2 stories. As you enter through the front door, you're greeted by one of the main bedroom with an en-suite that includes a large walk-in closet. Stepping further into the home you immediately notice the gourmet kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and quartz countertops. The kitchen flows into the living area with windows that let in natural light giving the home a bright and open feel. Making your way upstairs, you'll find the 4 secondary bedrooms, full bath and a loft. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Gourmet kitchen
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• FULL IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• AMERICA'S SMART HOME PACKAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Prairie Lakes); Monthly association fee of $80; Association fee covers common area maintenance; Community features including common grounds, community mailbox, playground, pool, sport court(s), and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two covered parking spaces (two total)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Fiber optic available; Natural gas available; Water available (Municipal Utility District); Sewer connected (Public sewer via Municipal Utility District); Underground utilities
• Home design: Two stories; New construction by DR HORTON; Faces northwest; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank exterior; Radiant barrier; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard; Fenced backyard with wood fence and gate; Covered front porch; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Main level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz counters; Recessed lighting; Double vanity; Smart home features including smart thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,198 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1002 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 136762% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $237,314 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,074
• List price: $296,990
• Delta: -11.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Garcia St	0.23mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	1mo	$303,118	$160	84
188 Garcia St	0.26mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	3mo	$286,990	$152	82
470 Bull Lake Cir	0.30mi	5/2.5	1,892 (-2%)	1mo	$290,990	$154	81
411 Mustang Lake Cir	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (+5%)	4mo	$339,990	$166	78
236 Gilmer Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-7%)	1mo	$332,640	$185	73
435 Mustang Lake Cir	0.10mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,107 (+9%)	4mo	$344,990	$164	73
395 Mustang Lake Cir	0.12mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-8%)	3mo	$319,990	$180	71
168 Juan Cordona Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (+5%)	4mo	$339,990	$166	68
280 Mustang Lake Cir	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-8%)	2mo	$326,990	$184	68
276 Mustang Lake Cir	0.22mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,107 (+9%)	1mo	$339,990	$161	66
244 Gilmer Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (-14%)	2mo	$318,990	$192	60
119 Juan Cordona Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-13%)	4mo	$314,990	$187	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-71,405
• Equity at exit: $44,282

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-109,841
• Equity at exit: $25,678

Cash invested: $83,157 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1002
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,557
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,455/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,699

Max offer price $259,708

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,248
• Closing costs: $8,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Santa Teresa Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,500	$1.22	43d	1	0.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $296,990 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $296,990 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $296,990 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $296,990 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $296,990 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $217 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on marketlisting id $217 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $296,990 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $296,990 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-05-16
    listed $297,840 Active 1031-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1031 chars)

    Check out 217 Bardwell Way featured in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,938 square feet of living space across 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and 2 stories. As you enter through the front door, you're greeted by one of the main bedroom with an en-suite that includes a large walk-in closet. Stepping further into the home you immediately notice the gourmet kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and quartz countertops. The kitchen flows into the living area with windows that let in natural light giving the home a bright and open feel. Making your way upstairs, you'll find the 4 secondary bedrooms, full bath and a loft. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,636
• − Property taxes: −$4,455
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,640
• Taxable loss: −$8,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,981
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 85/100 None rehab

This home in Prairie Lakes is move-in ready with good condition and curb appeal. Minor updates to exterior and interior paint would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint improves aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet is worn and reduces value
• Resale Replace kitchen faucet — Older faucet reduces value
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Older fixtures reduce value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet is worn and reduces value ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen faucet — Older faucet reduces value ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Older fixtures reduce value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Niederwald

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1198
• US rank: #20995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $301,185 Zillow
• 2026-06-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-10 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $296,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-01 Listed $217 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $296,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-16 Listed $297,840 Zillow