Aspen Plan · Wentzville, MO 63385

$294,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,279 sqft · SingleFamily · 282 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful ranch home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. The large great room opens to the breakfast room, and the kitchen features plenty of cabinetry and workspace. The master bedroom offers a walk in closet and private bath. Additional choices include various kitchen layouts, vaulted ceilings, bay window, fireplace, and extended great room & breakfast room.

Key facts

• Kitchen cabinetry
• Ranch home
• Breakfast room

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• GREAT ROOM
• BREAKFAST ROOM
• KITCHEN CABINETRY
• WALK IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $294,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $368,965.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-867 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in MO, #1,402 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $213,032 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.07%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,965
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -20.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Butterfly Garden Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,279 (0%)	2mo	$345,900	$270	89
352 Butterfly Garden Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,279 (0%)	11mo	$355,594	$278	88
1735 Wilmer Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+6%)	6mo	$389,000	$288	74
1034 Silo Bend Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,338 (+5%)	8mo	$325,000	$243	49
1028 Silo Bend Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,338 (+5%)	12mo	$325,000	$243	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-112,891
• Equity at exit: $55,014

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-160,574
• Equity at exit: $31,901

Cash invested: $103,310 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63385

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,534/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-867

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,228

Max offer price $243,526

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,241
• Closing costs: $11,069
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 Dogleg Ct Wentzville, MO	2.0	2.0	1374	$2,400	$1.75	24d	1	1.15mi
307 Columbia Dr Wentzville, MO	2.0	2.5	1206	$1,750	$1.45	18d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,900 Active 273 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 272 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 271 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $294,900 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,900 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,900 Active 266 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,900 Active 265 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,900 Active 264 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $294,900 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    This beautiful ranch home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. The large great room opens to the breakfast room, and the kitchen features plenty of cabinetry and workspace. The master bedroom offers a walk in closet and private bath. Additional choices include various kitchen layouts, vaulted ceilings, bay window, fireplace, and extended great room & breakfast room.

16. 2026-01-16
    status Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    This beautiful ranch home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. The large great room opens to the breakfast room, and the kitchen features plenty of cabinetry and workspace. The master bedroom offers a walk in closet and private bath. Additional choices include various kitchen layouts, vaulted ceilings, bay window, fireplace, and extended great room & breakfast room.

17. 2025-10-31
    historical 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    This beautiful ranch home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. The large great room opens to the breakfast room, and the kitchen features plenty of cabinetry and workspace. The master bedroom offers a walk in closet and private bath. Additional choices include various kitchen layouts, vaulted ceilings, bay window, fireplace, and extended great room & breakfast room.

18. 2025-06-25
    listed $289,900 Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    This beautiful ranch home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. The large great room opens to the breakfast room, and the kitchen features plenty of cabinetry and workspace. The master bedroom offers a walk in closet and private bath. Additional choices include various kitchen layouts, vaulted ceilings, bay window, fireplace, and extended great room & breakfast room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,668
• − Property taxes: −$5,534
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$10,734
• Taxable loss: −$17,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,154
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — Wentzville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1402

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 51,330
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,330
• Household income: $112,199
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.98%
• Current HPI: 216.4917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $294,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-25 Listed $289,900 Zillow