3618 Duplet Ave · Deerwood, TX 77306

$155,940

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $61/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Pima Floor Plan - The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner’s suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• GENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Villages of Greystone homeowners association; HOA includes park, pool, trails; HOA fee of $729 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Community pool; Community park; Community trails

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $155,940 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $183,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $156k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 34% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,990
• List price: $155,940
• Delta: -15.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17135 Saxophone Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$188,990	$139	94
3602 Duplet Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$188,990	$139	84
17143 Saxophone Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,360 (0%)	2mo	$189,990	$140	83
3862 Highline Oaks W	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+1%)	0mo	$319,990	$234	81
17107 Saxophone Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-13%)	1mo	$184,990	$156	65
17131 Saxophone Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-13%)	2mo	$183,990	$155	64
17115 Saxophone Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-13%)	2mo	$183,990	$155	64
16406 Trenda Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	14mo	$135,000	$100	62
17127 Saxophone Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+13%)	0mo	$195,990	$128	60
17119 Saxophone Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+13%)	1mo	$194,990	$127	57
16479 Taurus Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	15mo	$159,900	$119	57
16475 N Emerson	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+7%)	13mo	$174,900	$120	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-23,978
• Equity at exit: $27,434

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,184
• Equity at exit: $15,908

Cash invested: $51,517 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,801 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,760/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,687

Max offer price $183,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $154	+0% $91	+5% $27	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $19	+0% $91	+5% $162	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $137	base $91	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,998
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	44d	1	0.54mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	11d	1	0.93mi
15743 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1811	$1,895	$1.05	44d	1	1.40mi
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $155,940 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,940 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,940 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $155,940 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $155,940 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $155,940 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,940 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-05-11
   historical
9. 2026-05-11
   listed $164,040 Active 507-char remark
10. 2026-05-08
    price $164,040
11. 2026-05-08
    listed $164,040 Active
12. 2026-05-08
    listed $187,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,306
• − Property taxes: −$2,760
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$5,352
• Taxable loss: −$1,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$459
• After-tax cash flow: $1,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 22 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a welcoming design. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and add value to the home.
• Rental Upgrading the flooring in the bedrooms — Updated flooring can make the bedrooms more appealing to renters.
• Both Installing a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and add value to the home. ↑
• Rental Upgrading the flooring in the bedrooms — Updated flooring can make the bedrooms more appealing to renters. ↑
• Both Installing a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $155,940 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $161,340 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $164,040 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $164,040 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $187,990 HARMLS