436 Rosemary Loop · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 304 Days on market

Built 2007 0.36 ac lot $127/sqft · 26% below area Est $268k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming country feel with modern updates! This well-maintained home features a new roof (May 2022) and new AC/heat system (June 2024) for peace of mind. Enjoy extra privacy with no neighbors behind—just open family farmland. The spacious backyard includes a storage building and dog kennel that convey, plus a back deck designed for entertaining. Additional features include solar window screens on all windows, an industrial rain gutter system, and a covered front porch deck with lighting and electricity—perfect for relaxing or hosting guests. Nestled in a small, quiet neighborhood with no HOA, this home sits on a large lot offering the best of both worlds: close to New Braunfels and Seguin for shopping, dining, and entertainment, yet far enough out to enjoy peace and space. Don’t miss this unique property—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Storage building
• New ac heat system

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC HEAT SYSTEM
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• DOG KENNEL
• BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($483/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1896 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $199k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,060 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,542
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -25.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,807
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-46,810
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1896
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,595/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,700

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 304 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 293 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 290 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 289 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-02-12
    price $199,000 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    Charming country feel with modern updates! This well-maintained home features a new roof (May 2022) and new AC/heat system (June 2024) for peace of mind. Enjoy extra privacy with no neighbors behind—just open family farmland. The spacious backyard includes a storage building and dog kennel that convey, plus a back deck designed for entertaining. Additional features include solar window screens on all windows, an industrial rain gutter system, and a covered front porch deck with lighting and electricity—perfect for relaxing or hosting guests. Nestled in a small, quiet neighborhood with no HOA, this home sits on a large lot offering the best of both worlds: close to New Braunfels and Seguin for shopping, dining, and entertainment, yet far enough out to enjoy peace and space. Don’t miss this unique property—schedule your showing today!

14. 2025-08-19
    listed $215,000 Active 868-char remark

    Show marketing remark (868 chars)

    Charming country feel with modern updates! This well-maintained home features a new roof (May 2022) and new AC/heat system (June 2024) for peace of mind. Enjoy extra privacy with no neighbors behind—just open family farmland. The spacious backyard includes a storage building and dog kennel that convey, plus a back deck designed for entertaining. Additional features include solar window screens on all windows, an industrial rain gutter system, and a covered front porch deck with lighting and electricity—perfect for relaxing or hosting guests. Nestled in a small, quiet neighborhood with no HOA, this home sits on a large lot offering the best of both worlds: close to New Braunfels and Seguin for shopping, dining, and entertainment, yet far enough out to enjoy peace and space. Don’t miss this unique property—schedule your showing today!

15. 2025-07-31
    historical
16. 2025-02-22
    price $225,000
17. 2025-01-10
    price $227,000
18. 2024-11-08
    listed $235,000 Active
19. 2014-02-03
    soldstatus
20. 2012-02-13
    soldstatus
21. 2011-11-10
    soldstatus
22. 2011-10-21
    soldstatus
23. 2011-10-21
    soldstatus $50,990
24. 2011-08-22
    historical
25. 2011-02-18
    listed $54,500
26. 2011-02-18
    listed $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,595 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,047/yr (+$87/mo · 40.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,595
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,880
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$691
• After-tax cash flow: $1,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+265.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $199,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $215,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $225,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $227,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-11-08 Listed $235,000 CTXMLS
• 2014-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-10-21 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2011-10-21 Sold (MLS) $50,990 CTXMLS
• 2011-08-22 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2011-02-18 Listed $54,500 LERA
• 2011-02-18 Listed $54,500 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,595 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.