1235 Burlington Rd · Union, MI 49094

$179,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1900

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

To my knowledge, it was built-in the 30s. My father completely remodeled it. Back in the 70s, clean everything works as it should.

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 36 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Union City Community Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #354 of 540 in MI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Branch County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Branch County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.76%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,112
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $30,660
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49094

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,001/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $179,900 Active 130-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,001 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$885/yr (+$74/mo · 88.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,001
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $2,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $4,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union City Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634410
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,302
• Composite: 26.1/100
• National rank: #7288
• State rank: #354 of 540 in MI

Livability — Union

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,755

Population outlook (Branch County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,079 people
• By 2030: 39,622 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 36,584 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 33,462 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 26,612 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 18,580 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Branch

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.0% · R 70.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+38.1 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.02%
• Current HPI: 165.9347
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $179,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+75.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,001 · +207.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.