291 Barrett Ln · Church Hill, TN 37642

$111,300

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 201 Days on market

Built 1986 1.63 ac lot $101/sqft · 48% below area Est $215k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Presented for sale is this rural property on Barrett Rd which consists of a 3 bedroom home and a manufactured home. Repairs are needed. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold ''AS-IS'' without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding. Sold AS-IS, buyer responsible to ensure this Mobile Home/Manufactured Housing Unit has had the wheels, axles, and towing hitch removed, is on a permanent foundation or piers, and has been deemed permanently affixed to the subject property and a real property improvement, according to the requirements set forth by the Parish / County or Jurisdiction the subject property is located in, or obtain the vehicular title to the Mobile Home. Buyer to sign Hold Harmless and close AS IS.

Key facts

• 1.63 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $111k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $111k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.5% in Church Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#42 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $770 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $77k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $111k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,944 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.59%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,226
• List price: $111,300
• Delta: -48.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,056
• Equity at exit: $16,595

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $36,176
• Equity at exit: $9,623

Cash invested: $31,164 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37642

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$584
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $436/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $111,300

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,825
• Closing costs: $3,339
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Active 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Presented for sale is this rural property on Barrett Rd which consists of a 3 bedroom home and a manufactured home. Repairs are needed. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold ''AS-IS'' without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding. Sold AS-IS, buyer responsible to ensure this Mobile Home/Manufactured Housing Unit has had the wheels, axles, and towing hitch removed, is on a permanent foundation or piers, and has been deemed permanently affixed to the subject property and a real property improvement, according to the requirements set forth by the Parish / County or Jurisdiction the subject property is located in, or obtain the vehicular title to the Mobile Home. Buyer to sign Hold Harmless and close AS IS.

2. 2026-04-08
   historical 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Presented for sale is this rural property on Barrett Rd which consists of a 3 bedroom home and a manufactured home. Repairs are needed. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold ''AS-IS'' without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding. Sold AS-IS, buyer responsible to ensure this Mobile Home/Manufactured Housing Unit has had the wheels, axles, and towing hitch removed, is on a permanent foundation or piers, and has been deemed permanently affixed to the subject property and a real property improvement, according to the requirements set forth by the Parish / County or Jurisdiction the subject property is located in, or obtain the vehicular title to the Mobile Home. Buyer to sign Hold Harmless and close AS IS.

3. 2026-03-09
   price $111,300 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Presented for sale is this rural property on Barrett Rd which consists of a 3 bedroom home and a manufactured home. Repairs are needed. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold ''AS-IS'' without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding. Sold AS-IS, buyer responsible to ensure this Mobile Home/Manufactured Housing Unit has had the wheels, axles, and towing hitch removed, is on a permanent foundation or piers, and has been deemed permanently affixed to the subject property and a real property improvement, according to the requirements set forth by the Parish / County or Jurisdiction the subject property is located in, or obtain the vehicular title to the Mobile Home. Buyer to sign Hold Harmless and close AS IS.

4. 2026-02-03
   price $122,800 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Presented for sale is this rural property on Barrett Rd which consists of a 3 bedroom home and a manufactured home. Repairs are needed. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold ''AS-IS'' without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding. Sold AS-IS, buyer responsible to ensure this Mobile Home/Manufactured Housing Unit has had the wheels, axles, and towing hitch removed, is on a permanent foundation or piers, and has been deemed permanently affixed to the subject property and a real property improvement, according to the requirements set forth by the Parish / County or Jurisdiction the subject property is located in, or obtain the vehicular title to the Mobile Home. Buyer to sign Hold Harmless and close AS IS.

5. 2026-01-02
   price $151,300 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Presented for sale is this rural property on Barrett Rd which consists of a 3 bedroom home and a manufactured home. Repairs are needed. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold ''AS-IS'' without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding. Sold AS-IS, buyer responsible to ensure this Mobile Home/Manufactured Housing Unit has had the wheels, axles, and towing hitch removed, is on a permanent foundation or piers, and has been deemed permanently affixed to the subject property and a real property improvement, according to the requirements set forth by the Parish / County or Jurisdiction the subject property is located in, or obtain the vehicular title to the Mobile Home. Buyer to sign Hold Harmless and close AS IS.

6. 2025-11-14
   price $174,500 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Presented for sale is this rural property on Barrett Rd which consists of a 3 bedroom home and a manufactured home. Repairs are needed. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold ''AS-IS'' without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding. Sold AS-IS, buyer responsible to ensure this Mobile Home/Manufactured Housing Unit has had the wheels, axles, and towing hitch removed, is on a permanent foundation or piers, and has been deemed permanently affixed to the subject property and a real property improvement, according to the requirements set forth by the Parish / County or Jurisdiction the subject property is located in, or obtain the vehicular title to the Mobile Home. Buyer to sign Hold Harmless and close AS IS.

7. 2025-10-29
   listed $188,200 Active 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Presented for sale is this rural property on Barrett Rd which consists of a 3 bedroom home and a manufactured home. Repairs are needed. RESERVE AUCTION PROPERTY- Property sold ''AS-IS'' without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect before bidding. Sold AS-IS, buyer responsible to ensure this Mobile Home/Manufactured Housing Unit has had the wheels, axles, and towing hitch removed, is on a permanent foundation or piers, and has been deemed permanently affixed to the subject property and a real property improvement, according to the requirements set forth by the Parish / County or Jurisdiction the subject property is located in, or obtain the vehicular title to the Mobile Home. Buyer to sign Hold Harmless and close AS IS.

8. 2025-07-21
   soldstatus $72,774
9. 2024-09-26
   soldstatus $69,115

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$30/mo · 81.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,235
• − Property taxes: −$436
• − Insurance: −$556
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$3,238
• Taxable income: $2,873
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$689
• After-tax cash flow: $3,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Church Hill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #6706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 14,491
• Population (ZIP): 14,491

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.69%
• Current HPI: 297.1526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+61.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $111,300 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $122,800 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $151,300 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $174,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $188,200 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $72,774 Public Records
• 2024-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $69,115 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $436 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.