4002 Governors Sq #7 · Williamsburg, VA 23188

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $282k · 25% under $259/mo HOA · 13% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a great 1st time buyer or downsizing situation as an alternative to renting! With $10,000 in possible closing cost allowance we can move you from renting to buying almost immediately, ! This is a 3 Bedroom condo is located in the middle of Williamsburg convenient to shopping, dining, entertaining near the New Town area. With 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, a 45SF covered patio it has the space you need and hard to find at this price point! The community is on a local transportation route and has a park/playground. If you're an investor there is no rental cap and this would immediately have great cash flow potential with rent in the $1500-$1600/ mo range as is. Check out the floor plans

Key facts

• $259 HOA
• Built 1985
• Listed 61 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee ($259); HOA covers association management, common areas, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, snow removal, and trash; Association management provided by Town Management - Roy Dawson; Community amenities include a playground and park

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public power
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level is 2; R5 zoning
• Construction: Brick, frame, drywall, and concrete construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as listed (actual year built)
• Exterior features: Balcony

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on first level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling); Electric heating
• Interior features: Sliding doors; Electric ventless fireplace

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $210,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$281,673) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-255/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in James City County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• James City County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,578 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,673
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4008 Governors Sq #6	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,071 (0%)	22mo	$115,000	$107	79
4005 Governors Sq #10	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,071 (0%)	19mo	$195,000	$182	76
126 Watford Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,067 (-0%)	13mo	$281,000	$263	49
126 Watford Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,067 (-0%)	13mo	$281,000	$263	49
107 Indigo Dam Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,023 (-4%)	10mo	$65,000	$64	48
5202 Foundation St	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,167 (+9%)	19mo	$316,000	$271	45
4309 Creekside Loop	0.47mi	2/1.5	973 (-9%)	22mo	$310,000	$319	42
5215 Foundation St	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,172 (+9%)	23mo	$330,000	$282	42
5215 Center St #210	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	950 (-11%)	24mo	$274,500	$289	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-36,205
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-36,609
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23188

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$259
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,963

Max offer price $206,241

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3873 Strawberry Plains Rd Unit B Williamsburg, VA	1.0	1.0	714	$1,500	$2.10	12d	1	0.26mi
4049 Midlands Rd Williamsburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,650	$1.62	2d	1	0.35mi
3813 Staffordshire Ln Williamsburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,700	$1.48	2d	1	0.41mi
4375 New Town Ave Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1141	$2,765	$2.42	2d	15	0.70mi
2800 Ben Franklin Cir Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	968	$2,196	$2.27	2d	15	0.90mi
2901 Queens Path Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1357	$2,300	$1.69	11d	1	1.20mi
150 Kings Manor Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1295	$2,846	$2.20	2d	23	1.20mi
132 Jesters Ln Unit B Williamsburg, VA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,500	$2.08	2d	1	1.21mi
203 Bristol Cmn Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1159	$2,100	$1.81	2d	1	1.22mi
1400 Middle St Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	686	$1,565	$2.28	2d	1	1.28mi
155 Sterling Manor Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1588	$2,404	$1.51	2d	13	1.32mi
1203 Jamestown Rd Unit A1 Williamsburg, VA	2.0	1.0	848	$1,275	$1.50	16d	1	1.32mi
3500 Carriage House Way Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1300	$2,534	$1.95	2d	24	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $259 · $3,108/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $210,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    listed $210,000 Active
15. 2015-01-19
    listed $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,722 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$489/yr (+$41/mo · 39.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,858
• − Management: −$1,858
• − HOA: −$3,108
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$900
• After-tax cash flow: $645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: James City County · 45,803 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 45,803
• Household income: $103,160
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (James City County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,286 people
• By 2030: 89,687 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 99,580 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 108,487 · +28.7%
• By 2075: 128,950 · +53.0%
• By 2100: 138,702 · +64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · James City

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.2) · D 52.5% · R 46.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: 6.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.2 2020: D+4.8 2016: R+5.1 2012: R+12.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.65%
• Current HPI: 226.2192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $210,000 WMLS
• 2015-01-19 Listed $105,000 WMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,233 · +112.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.