4357 Tavistock Cir · Mehlville, MO 63129

$100,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1974 3,528 sqft lot Est $170k · 41% under $385/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath condo in the heart of south county. The cathedral ceiling creates an open feel, kitchen remodeled with tile floor, pull out shelves in cabinets, freshly painted pantry, refrigerator, washer, dryer stay. Custom blinds and triple glass windows. Main floor bedroom and 3 upper level bedrooms with an updated bath.The main floor bath has access to the laundry/utility room. Private patio located off of the main floor bedroom. Utility shed on patio for extra storage. Location: Ground Level, Suburban

Key facts

• $385 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.4% in Mehlville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#232 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bierbaum Elem. (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #751 of 1,115 statewide, top 68%, 533 students, 54% FRL); Mehlville High School (math 26% / reading 54%, grade F, #243 of 521 statewide, top 47%, 1,440 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 22% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.35%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,352
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4357 Tavistock Cir	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,092 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$92	100
4377 Kingbolt Blvd	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,122 (+3%)	2mo	$115,000	$102	86
4360 Humber Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,119 (+2%)	3mo	$175,000	$156	85
1072 Humber Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,122 (+3%)	20mo	$190,000	$169	70
1015 Mersey Bend Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,240 (+14%)	3mo	$169,900	$137	65
1020 Mersey Bend Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,240 (+14%)	3mo	$205,000	$165	63
4300 Forder Gardens Pl Unit J	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	964 (-12%)	11mo	$169,900	$176	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $12,813
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $49,250
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63129

• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,433/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$385
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,355

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $508	-5% $480	+0% $451	+5% $423	+10% $395
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $375	+0% $451	+5% $528	+10% $604
Rate	-1.0pp $502	-0.5pp $477	base $451	+0.5pp $426	+1.0pp $399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4001 Mitchford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,400	$1.86	2d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $385 · $4,620/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $100,000 Active
3. 2026-04-16
   historical $100,000
4. 2016-07-26
   soldstatus $79,900
5. 2016-07-18
   soldstatus Closed 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Well maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath condo in the heart of south county. The cathedral ceiling creates an open feel, kitchen remodeled with tile floor, pull out shelves in cabinets, freshly painted pantry, refrigerator, washer, dryer stay. Custom blinds and triple glass windows. Main floor bedroom and 3 upper level bedrooms with an updated bath.The main floor bath has access to the laundry/utility room. Private patio located off of the main floor bedroom. Utility shed on patio for extra storage. Location: Ground Level, Suburban

6. 2016-06-22
   status Pending 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Well maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath condo in the heart of south county. The cathedral ceiling creates an open feel, kitchen remodeled with tile floor, pull out shelves in cabinets, freshly painted pantry, refrigerator, washer, dryer stay. Custom blinds and triple glass windows. Main floor bedroom and 3 upper level bedrooms with an updated bath.The main floor bath has access to the laundry/utility room. Private patio located off of the main floor bedroom. Utility shed on patio for extra storage. Location: Ground Level, Suburban

7. 2016-06-13
   historical 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Well maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath condo in the heart of south county. The cathedral ceiling creates an open feel, kitchen remodeled with tile floor, pull out shelves in cabinets, freshly painted pantry, refrigerator, washer, dryer stay. Custom blinds and triple glass windows. Main floor bedroom and 3 upper level bedrooms with an updated bath.The main floor bath has access to the laundry/utility room. Private patio located off of the main floor bedroom. Utility shed on patio for extra storage. Location: Ground Level, Suburban

8. 2016-06-09
   price $79,900 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Well maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath condo in the heart of south county. The cathedral ceiling creates an open feel, kitchen remodeled with tile floor, pull out shelves in cabinets, freshly painted pantry, refrigerator, washer, dryer stay. Custom blinds and triple glass windows. Main floor bedroom and 3 upper level bedrooms with an updated bath.The main floor bath has access to the laundry/utility room. Private patio located off of the main floor bedroom. Utility shed on patio for extra storage. Location: Ground Level, Suburban

9. 2016-05-31
   price $89,900 529-char remark

   Show marketing remark (529 chars)

   Well maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath condo in the heart of south county. The cathedral ceiling creates an open feel, kitchen remodeled with tile floor, pull out shelves in cabinets, freshly painted pantry, refrigerator, washer, dryer stay. Custom blinds and triple glass windows. Main floor bedroom and 3 upper level bedrooms with an updated bath.The main floor bath has access to the laundry/utility room. Private patio located off of the main floor bedroom. Utility shed on patio for extra storage. Location: Ground Level, Suburban

10. 2016-05-13
    price $94,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Well maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath condo in the heart of south county. The cathedral ceiling creates an open feel, kitchen remodeled with tile floor, pull out shelves in cabinets, freshly painted pantry, refrigerator, washer, dryer stay. Custom blinds and triple glass windows. Main floor bedroom and 3 upper level bedrooms with an updated bath.The main floor bath has access to the laundry/utility room. Private patio located off of the main floor bedroom. Utility shed on patio for extra storage. Location: Ground Level, Suburban

11. 2016-04-21
    listed $99,900 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Well maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath condo in the heart of south county. The cathedral ceiling creates an open feel, kitchen remodeled with tile floor, pull out shelves in cabinets, freshly painted pantry, refrigerator, washer, dryer stay. Custom blinds and triple glass windows. Main floor bedroom and 3 upper level bedrooms with an updated bath.The main floor bath has access to the laundry/utility room. Private patio located off of the main floor bedroom. Utility shed on patio for extra storage. Location: Ground Level, Suburban

12. 1994-03-29
    soldstatus
13. 1994-03-29
    soldstatus
14. 1986-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,433 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,433 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,433
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − HOA: −$4,620
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,045
• After-tax cash flow: $4,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Mehlville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #11310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mehlville, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,553
• Household income: $94,888
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 743.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% American 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -246.14%
• Current HPI: 208.6962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2016-07-18 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-22 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-13 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-09 Price Changed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-31 Price Changed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-13 Price Changed $94,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-21 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,433 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.