6818 Iron Gate Dr · Durham, NC 27503

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1973 2.56 ac lot Est $442k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity in Bahama on 2.56 acres with water views from front and back of the property and no HOA. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a rare chance for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a rehab project in a beautiful setting. Property requires major renovation, including foundation work, and is being sold as-is, where-is. Strong potential for the right buyer willing to bring this property back to life.

Key facts

• Water views
• Foundation work
• Major renovation

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• NO HOA
• MAJOR RENOVATION
• FOUNDATION WORK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $998 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northern High (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #441 of 535 statewide, top 83%, 1,308 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $240k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.83%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $442,020
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
817 Bent Creek Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+3%)	8mo	$300,000	$174	76
518 Orange Factory Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-7%)	2mo	$410,000	$265	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $24,698
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $103,357
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27503

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,575/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $998

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,991

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $239,900 Active
3. 1994-01-31
   soldstatus $117,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,575 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,575 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,575
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,124
• − Management: −$3,124
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable income: $8,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,067
• After-tax cash flow: $9,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701260
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,143
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6457
• State rank: #132 of 178 in NC

Livability — Durham

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1411

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 288,747
• Population (ZIP): 5,092

Population outlook (Durham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 368,962 people
• By 2030: 402,686 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 468,677 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 531,727 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 660,446 · +79.0%
• By 2100: 739,971 · +100.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Durham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+61.9) · D 80.2% · R 18.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.0pp toward D · 2008: 51.9pp · 2024: 61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+61.9 2020: D+62.4 2016: D+60.4 2012: D+52.7 2008: D+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.90%
• Current HPI: 255.0376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+104.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $239,900 TMLS
• 1994-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,575 · +26.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.