25251 Leather Leaf Ct · Todd Mission, TX 77316

$224,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,813 sqft lot $137/sqft · 9% below area Est $247k · 9% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 50438816- Built by Imagination Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Verse Floorplan! This spacious 2-story home offers 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths, and a 2-Car Garage across 1,640 SF of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept first floor connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a central island, ample counters, and a large pantry. Upstairs, enjoy a private primary retreat with walk-in closet and en-suite bath, plus 3 secondary bedrooms and a full bath. Convenient upstairs laundry adds ease to daily life. Smart layout, flexible spaces, and stylish finishes make this home ideal for modern living. Located just 3 miles east of The Aggie Expressway/249, combining convenience with community charm. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Central island
• Large pantry
• Upstairs laundry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• LARGE PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY RETREAT
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $224k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,840 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,696
• List price: $224,000
• Delta: -9.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25272 Leather Leaf Ct	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-2%)	1mo	$254,990	$159	92
25561 Blossom Ct	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-2%)	1mo	$254,990	$159	86
25427 Blossom Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (+2%)	3mo	$239,900	$143	78
25235 Leather Leaf Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-9%)	2mo	$228,000	$153	74
25280 Leather Leaf Ct	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,881 (+15%)	2mo	$261,990	$139	71
25605 Microstar Way	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,694 (+3%)	1mo	$239,000	$141	70
25564 Blossom Ct	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,881 (+15%)	1mo	$263,990	$140	67
5822 Agave Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (+8%)	2mo	$269,873	$152	66
25284 Leather Leaf Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-14%)	2mo	$241,990	$172	65
25296 Leather Leaf Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-14%)	2mo	$239,990	$170	63
25494 Blossom Ct	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,880 (+15%)	0mo	$276,403	$147	63
25440 Blossom Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (+14%)	3mo	$254,900	$136	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,860
• Equity at exit: $33,399

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-44,681
• Equity at exit: $19,367

Cash invested: $62,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$280 /mo · $3,360/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,018

Max offer price $224,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,000
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25553 Blossom Ct Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,690	$1.35	3d	1	0.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $224,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    price $232,000 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    MLS# 50438816- Built by Imagination Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Verse Floorplan! This spacious 2-story home offers 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths, and a 2-Car Garage across 1,640 SF of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept first floor connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a central island, ample counters, and a large pantry. Upstairs, enjoy a private primary retreat with walk-in closet and en-suite bath, plus 3 secondary bedrooms and a full bath. Convenient upstairs laundry adds ease to daily life. Smart layout, flexible spaces, and stylish finishes make this home ideal for modern living. Located just 3 miles east of The Aggie Expressway/249, combining convenience with community charm. Schedule your tour today!

15. 2026-03-14
    listed $240,000 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    MLS# 50438816- Built by Imagination Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Verse Floorplan! This spacious 2-story home offers 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths, and a 2-Car Garage across 1,640 SF of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept first floor connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a central island, ample counters, and a large pantry. Upstairs, enjoy a private primary retreat with walk-in closet and en-suite bath, plus 3 secondary bedrooms and a full bath. Convenient upstairs laundry adds ease to daily life. Smart layout, flexible spaces, and stylish finishes make this home ideal for modern living. Located just 3 miles east of The Aggie Expressway/249, combining convenience with community charm. Schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$3,360
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
• − Management: −$2,048
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$2,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$622
• After-tax cash flow: $1,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a spacious 2-story layout with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, ideal for modern living. The exterior and interior are in good condition, with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $232,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $240,000 HARMLS