151 Hill Dr · Lake Meredith Estates, TX 79036

$124,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · Manufactured public records · 234 Days on market

Built 1996 0.75 ac lot $73/sqft · 24% below area Est $165k · 24% under $38/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't let this one slip away again! FHA ready with retro fit foundation and engineer's report. Appraisal had no repairs required. The views of the lake from the front deck will keep you wanting more. Five lots starting at the corner of HIll and Boatramp. This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath will not disappoint with an isolated primary and ensuite. Open floor plan living, dining with corner fireplace. Nice center island in kitchen. Bring your buyers today before it's gone again!!!

Key facts

• Garden
• Lakeview
• Thoughtful updates

Tags

• LAKEVIEW
• NEWER CARPET
• THOUGHTFUL UPDATES
• FIREPLACE
• DINING ROOM WINDOW
• GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#996 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sanford-Fritch ISD (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Hutchinson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $861 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.14%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,645
• List price: $124,500
• Delta: -24.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-14,345
• Equity at exit: $18,563

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,933
• Equity at exit: $10,764

Cash invested: $34,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79036

• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$653
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,420/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,090

Max offer price $124,500

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,125
• Closing costs: $3,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,500 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,500 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,500 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,500 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,500 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,500 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,500 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,500 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,500 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,500 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,500 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,500 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,500 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,500 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,500 Active 216 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    status Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Don't let this one slip away again! FHA ready with retro fit foundation and engineer's report. Appraisal had no repairs required. The views of the lake from the front deck will keep you wanting more. Five lots starting at the corner of HIll and Boatramp. This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath will not disappoint with an isolated primary and ensuite. Open floor plan living, dining with corner fireplace. Nice center island in kitchen. Bring your buyers today before it's gone again!!!

17. 2026-03-21
    status Pending 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Don't let this one slip away again! FHA ready with retro fit foundation and engineer's report. Appraisal had no repairs required. The views of the lake from the front deck will keep you wanting more. Five lots starting at the corner of HIll and Boatramp. This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath will not disappoint with an isolated primary and ensuite. Open floor plan living, dining with corner fireplace. Nice center island in kitchen. Bring your buyers today before it's gone again!!!

18. 2026-02-23
    historical Active Under Contract 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Don't let this one slip away again! FHA ready with retro fit foundation and engineer's report. Appraisal had no repairs required. The views of the lake from the front deck will keep you wanting more. Five lots starting at the corner of HIll and Boatramp. This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath will not disappoint with an isolated primary and ensuite. Open floor plan living, dining with corner fireplace. Nice center island in kitchen. Bring your buyers today before it's gone again!!!

19. 2025-09-23
    listed $124,500 Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Don't let this one slip away again! FHA ready with retro fit foundation and engineer's report. Appraisal had no repairs required. The views of the lake from the front deck will keep you wanting more. Five lots starting at the corner of HIll and Boatramp. This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath will not disappoint with an isolated primary and ensuite. Open floor plan living, dining with corner fireplace. Nice center island in kitchen. Bring your buyers today before it's gone again!!!

20. 2018-11-05
    soldstatus 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Awesome views of Lake Meredith from atop of this hill on Hill St. The home has all newer windows and some fresh paint, new vinyl plank flooring & carpet to be installed by middle of May 2018 by Witt Flooring. It has central H & A. Large rooms, isolated master, big master bath has a separate shower & garden tub and a pretty large walk-in closet. Revamped front & back porches with a great sturdy feel. 5 lots total, the first 4 lots are flat with the 5th lot dropping down into the canyons. Possible OWNER FINANCING.

21. 2018-11-05
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Awesome views of Lake Meredith from atop of this hill on Hill St. The home has all newer windows and some fresh paint, new vinyl plank flooring & carpet to be installed by middle of May 2018 by Witt Flooring. It has central H & A. Large rooms, isolated master, big master bath has a separate shower & garden tub and a pretty large walk-in closet. Revamped front & back porches with a great sturdy feel. 5 lots total, the first 4 lots are flat with the 5th lot dropping down into the canyons. Possible OWNER FINANCING.

22. 2018-02-17
    listed $62,500 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Awesome views of Lake Meredith from atop of this hill on Hill St. The home has all newer windows and some fresh paint, new vinyl plank flooring & carpet to be installed by middle of May 2018 by Witt Flooring. It has central H & A. Large rooms, isolated master, big master bath has a separate shower & garden tub and a pretty large walk-in closet. Revamped front & back porches with a great sturdy feel. 5 lots total, the first 4 lots are flat with the 5th lot dropping down into the canyons. Possible OWNER FINANCING.

23. 1997-10-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,420 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,278 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$859/yr (+$72/mo · 60.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,974
• − Property taxes: −$1,420
• − Insurance: −$622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$3,622
• Taxable loss: −$943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$226
• After-tax cash flow: $1,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sanford-Fritch ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,570
• Composite: 34.01/100
• National rank: #5314
• State rank: #417 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Meredith Estates

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #996
• US rank: #17712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Meredith Estates, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,957

Population outlook (Hutchinson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,274 people
• By 2030: 21,089 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 20,938 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 20,999 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 21,433 · +0.7%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Hutchinson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.2) · D 11.1% · R 88.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -68.9pp · 2024: -77.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.2 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+76.1 2012: R+72.7 2008: R+68.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.35%
• Current HPI: 148.285
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+99.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Relisted — AARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Pending — AARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Contingent — AARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $124,500 AARMLS
• 2018-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-11-05 Sold (MLS) — AARMLS
• 2018-02-17 Listed $62,500 AARMLS
• 1997-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,420 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.