534 Windsor Dr · Allen, TX 75002

$279,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,303 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1977 6,098 sqft lot Est $293k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Your New Home in Allen, TX! This stunning one-story residence at 534 Windsor Dr offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. Located in the highly sought-after Allen ISD, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem is ready for you to move right in. This property offers Open Floor Plan: The heart of the home features a spacious and airy layout, perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. The seamless flow between the living area and kitchen creates a welcoming atmosphere. Kitchen has granite counter top and SS appliances. Prime Location: Situated in a desirable neighborhood within the top-rated Allen Independent School District, providing excellent educational opportuni

Key facts

• Close to highway 75
• Open floor plan
• Granite counter top

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOP
• SS APPLIANCES
• PRIME LOCATION
• CLOSE TO HIGHWAY 75
• ALLEN PREMIUM OUTLET MALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-572/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Allen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#34 in TX, #1,678 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Allen ISD (suburban): math 64% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #22 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Alton Boyd El (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 572 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 16% district-wide (53 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-32 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Allen ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.9%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,300 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,175
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
534 Windsor Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,303 (0%)	2mo	$279,990	$215	99
524 Oldbridge Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+0%)	1mo	$289,900	$222	96
509 Hanover Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,303 (0%)	1mo	$330,000	$253	92
566 Cumberland Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+0%)	1mo	$299,000	$229	88
551 Hanover Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+6%)	2mo	$300,000	$217	82
516 Ridgemont Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+6%)	3mo	$329,900	$239	77
31 Brewster Ct	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,260 (-3%)	3mo	$295,000	$234	74
560 Guadalupe Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+9%)	0mo	$274,999	$193	67
527 English Oak Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,338 (+3%)	3mo	$289,000	$216	63
1214 Collin Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,160 (-11%)	2mo	$300,000	$259	62
511 Scarlet Oak St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,223 (-6%)	1mo	$269,995	$221	56
506 Scarlet Oak Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,461 (+12%)	2mo	$329,000	$225	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-54,991
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-77,254
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75002

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,721/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,293

Max offer price $271,573

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
534 Oldbridge Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,000	$1.53	7d	1	0.03mi
510 Cumberland Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,050	$1.63	43d	1	0.12mi
516 Northridge Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,150	$1.65	24d	1	0.12mi
516 Northridge Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,150	$1.65	20d	1	0.12mi
546 Cumberland Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,950	$1.50	43d	1	0.13mi
507 Cumberland Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,000	$1.49	24d	1	0.14mi
556 Hanover Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,049	$1.48	5d	1	0.19mi
530 Hightrail Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,900	$1.51	20d	1	0.19mi
565 Bell Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$4,900	$3.60	1d	1	0.22mi
522 Hawthorne Dr Allen, TX	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,995	$1.23	11d	1	0.23mi
558 Ridgemont Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	7d	1	0.23mi
563 Cumberland Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$2,000	$1.55	5d	1	0.25mi
551 Hightrail Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$2,100	$1.36	24d	1	0.29mi
556 Freestone Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1521	$2,150	$1.41	24d	1	0.32mi
556 Hawthorne Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,995	$1.54	24d	1	0.32mi
547 Guadalupe Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,340	$1.26	24d	1	0.34mi
547 Guadalupe Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,340	$1.26	12d	1	0.34mi
1108 Collin Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$5,700	$3.47	1d	1	0.35mi
546 E Bethany Dr Allen, TX	2.0	2.0	875	$1,115	$1.27	43d	1	0.39mi
500 Scarlet Oak Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,200	$1.55	43d	1	0.42mi
1506 S Jupiter Rd Allen, TX	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,344	$1.23	43d	1	0.44mi
1500 S Jupiter Rd Allen, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	972	$1,930	$1.98	2d	21	0.47mi
810 Fairlawn St Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,145	$1.30	43d	1	0.50mi
563 Eiseley Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,600	$1.41	20d	1	0.52mi
1541 Collin Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.5	1342	$2,275	$1.70	43d	1	0.55mi
1655 Chasen Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,550	$1.38	3d	1	0.55mi
1648 Jude Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$3,000	$1.63	18d	1	0.56mi
1621 Collin Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,100	$1.42	18d	1	0.60mi
524 White Oak St Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,195	$1.28	44d	1	0.60mi
610 Willow Oak St Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,350	$1.59	43d	1	0.62mi
738 Ridgemont Dr Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,300	$1.25	2d	1	0.66mi
1280 Montgomery Blvd Allen, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,876	$2.71	2d	25	0.82mi
925 Garden Park Dr Allen, TX	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,970	$1.77	43d	1	0.86mi
935 Garden Park Dr Allen, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$2,890	$2.64	1d	34	0.88mi
1175 Montgomery Blvd Allen, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,434	$2.29	1d	35	0.97mi
1165 Montgomery Blvd Unit 3118 Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,989	$2.17	3d	1	1.06mi
1165 Montgomery Blvd Unit 2118 Allen, TX	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,564	$2.14	3d	1	1.06mi
1165 Montgomery Blvd Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$3,254	$2.36	24d	1	1.06mi
1165 Montgomery Blvd Unit 1198 Allen, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$3,017	$2.19	43d	1	1.06mi
1165 Montgomery Blvd Unit 1202 Allen, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,978	$1.83	43d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-03-06
   listed $279,990 Active
4. 2026-01-31
   historical $1,995
5. 2025-12-09
   listed $1,995
6. 2025-12-08
   listed $279,995 Active
7. 2024-10-19
   historical $1,995
8. 2024-09-18
   listed $1,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,721 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,403/yr (+$200/mo · 88.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,721
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$5,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807890
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $96,635
• Composite: 58.45/100
• National rank: #1004
• State rank: #22 of 826 in TX

Livability — Allen

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #1678

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Allen, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 124,853
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 75,057
• Household income: $137,037
• Rent vs Own: 21.6% rent · 78.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1624.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 11% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.74%
• Current HPI: 265.6632
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.86%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13934.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $279,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-31 Rental Removed $1,995 NTREIS
• 2025-12-09 Listed for Rent $1,995 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $279,995 NTREIS
• 2024-10-19 Rental Removed $1,995 NTREIS
• 2024-09-18 Listed for Rent $1,995 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,721 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.