8525 Great Circle Dr · California City, CA 93505

$339,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,519 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1983 9,583 sqft lot Est $401k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in California City! This spacious home offers a functional layout, generous lot size, and plenty of potential to make it your own. Ideal for buyers seeking value and space.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,438/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,800 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $400,521
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8313 Redwood Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,202 (-13%)	5mo	$349,900	$159	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $168,495
• Equity at exit: $306,209

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $527,891
• Equity at exit: $660,351

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,314/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,891

Max offer price $276,725

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20300 Graham St California City, CA	4.0	2.5	2016	$2,150	$1.07	23d	1	0.43mi
20425 81st St California City, CA	4.0	3.0	2215	$2,900	$1.31	19d	1	0.45mi
8332 Rea Ave California City, CA	4.0	3.0	1861	$2,500	$1.34	3d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-05-01
   price $339,900 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Great opportunity in California City! This spacious home offers a functional layout, generous lot size, and plenty of potential to make it your own. Ideal for buyers seeking value and space.

2. 2026-05-01
   price $339,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Great opportunity in California City! This spacious home offers a functional layout, generous lot size, and plenty of potential to make it your own. Ideal for buyers seeking value and space.

3. 2026-04-16
   price $349,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Great opportunity in California City! This spacious home offers a functional layout, generous lot size, and plenty of potential to make it your own. Ideal for buyers seeking value and space.

4. 2026-04-16
   price $349,900 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Great opportunity in California City! This spacious home offers a functional layout, generous lot size, and plenty of potential to make it your own. Ideal for buyers seeking value and space.

5. 2026-04-02
   price $359,900 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Great opportunity in California City! This spacious home offers a functional layout, generous lot size, and plenty of potential to make it your own. Ideal for buyers seeking value and space.

6. 2026-04-02
   price $359,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Great opportunity in California City! This spacious home offers a functional layout, generous lot size, and plenty of potential to make it your own. Ideal for buyers seeking value and space.

7. 2026-03-10
   listed $364,900 Active 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Great opportunity in California City! This spacious home offers a functional layout, generous lot size, and plenty of potential to make it your own. Ideal for buyers seeking value and space.

8. 2026-03-08
   price $364,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Great opportunity in California City! This spacious home offers a functional layout, generous lot size, and plenty of potential to make it your own. Ideal for buyers seeking value and space.

9. 2026-02-24
   listed $369,900 Active 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Great opportunity in California City! This spacious home offers a functional layout, generous lot size, and plenty of potential to make it your own. Ideal for buyers seeking value and space.

10. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $335,000 Closed
11. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $335,000 Closed Sale
12. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $335,000
13. 2024-05-01
    status Active
14. 2024-04-09
    status Pending Sale
15. 2024-04-09
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2024-03-29
    price $325,000
17. 2024-03-29
    status Active
18. 2024-03-29
    status Active
19. 2024-03-28
    price $325,000
20. 2024-03-22
    historical
21. 2024-03-21
    historical
22. 2024-03-01
    price $339,900
23. 2024-03-01
    price $339,900
24. 2024-02-10
    status Active
25. 2024-02-10
    status Active
26. 2024-01-31
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2024-01-31
    status Pending
28. 2024-01-05
    listed $350,000 Active
29. 2024-01-05
    listed $350,000 Active
30. 2023-10-06
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed
31. 2023-10-06
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed
32. 2023-10-06
    soldstatus $215,000
33. 2023-09-14
    status Pending
34. 2023-09-14
    status Pending
35. 2023-07-31
    listed $204,900 Active
36. 2023-07-31
    listed $204,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,314 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,314 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$4,314
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,340
• − Management: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$10,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,488
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+65.9% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $339,900 CRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $339,900 GEMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $349,900 GEMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $349,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $359,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $359,900 GEMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $364,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $364,900 GEMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $369,900 GEMLS
• 2024-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-21 Sold (MLS) $335,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-21 Sold (MLS) $335,000 AVMLS
• 2024-05-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-04-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-04-09 Contingent — AVMLS
• 2024-03-29 Price Changed $325,000 AVMLS
• 2024-03-29 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-03-29 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $325,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-22 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $339,900 AVMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $339,900 CRMLS
• 2024-02-10 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-02-10 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2024-01-31 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2024-01-31 Pending — AVMLS
• 2024-01-05 Listed $350,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-05 Listed $350,000 AVMLS
• 2023-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-06 Sold (MLS) $215,000 AVMLS
• 2023-10-06 Sold (MLS) $215,000 TAAR
• 2023-09-14 Pending — TAAR
• 2023-09-14 Pending — AVMLS
• 2023-07-31 Listed $204,900 AVMLS
• 2023-07-31 Listed $204,900 TAAR

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,314 · +163.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.