2781 Ambler Way · Pahrump, NV 89060

$164,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 228 Days on market

Built 1976 1.16 ac lot $109/sqft · 34% below area Est $250k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private Well! Rare 1.16-acre property at 2781 Ambler Way in Pahrump. 1.16 acres with existing single-wide mobile home 2 bd 1 Ba, ready for renovation or replacement, tiny home anyone! Existing structure gives utility hook-up advantage (possible savings vs raw land). Room for toys, RVs, animals, expansion, no HOA lifestyle. The PRIVATE WELL provides valuable independence and TIME a value of approx. 25-30K—especially important with ongoing water concerns in the area. schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 1.16 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-205/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 655 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $164k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.74%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,389
• List price: $164,500
• Delta: -34.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2281 Ambler Way	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,501 (-1%)	0mo	$275,000	$183	66
2881 Palm Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+2%)	19mo	$240,000	$156	64
2620 Ambler Way	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-11%)	17mo	$265,000	$197	50
2681 Tonya Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+4%)	8mo	$303,000	$193	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-27,645
• Equity at exit: $24,527

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-25,072
• Equity at exit: $14,223

Cash invested: $46,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89060

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,468/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $162,028

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,125
• Closing costs: $4,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2120 McMurray Dr Unit 7 Pahrump, NV	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	43d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,500 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,500 Active 227 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,500 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,500 Active 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,500 Active 224 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,500 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,500 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,500 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,500 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,500 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,500 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,500 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,500 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,500 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,500 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $164,500 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Private Well! Rare 1.16-acre property at 2781 Ambler Way in Pahrump. 1.16 acres with existing single-wide mobile home 2 bd 1 Ba, ready for renovation or replacement, tiny home anyone! Existing structure gives utility hook-up advantage (possible savings vs raw land). Room for toys, RVs, animals, expansion, no HOA lifestyle. The PRIVATE WELL provides valuable independence and TIME a value of approx. 25-30K—especially important with ongoing water concerns in the area. schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-04-10
    price $169,500 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Private Well! Rare 1.16-acre property at 2781 Ambler Way in Pahrump. 1.16 acres with existing single-wide mobile home 2 bd 1 Ba, ready for renovation or replacement, tiny home anyone! Existing structure gives utility hook-up advantage (possible savings vs raw land). Room for toys, RVs, animals, expansion, no HOA lifestyle. The PRIVATE WELL provides valuable independence and TIME a value of approx. 25-30K—especially important with ongoing water concerns in the area. schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-04-01
    price $174,500 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Private Well! Rare 1.16-acre property at 2781 Ambler Way in Pahrump. 1.16 acres with existing single-wide mobile home 2 bd 1 Ba, ready for renovation or replacement, tiny home anyone! Existing structure gives utility hook-up advantage (possible savings vs raw land). Room for toys, RVs, animals, expansion, no HOA lifestyle. The PRIVATE WELL provides valuable independence and TIME a value of approx. 25-30K—especially important with ongoing water concerns in the area. schedule your showing today!

19. 2025-11-03
    listed $175,000 Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Private Well! Rare 1.16-acre property at 2781 Ambler Way in Pahrump. 1.16 acres with existing single-wide mobile home 2 bd 1 Ba, ready for renovation or replacement, tiny home anyone! Existing structure gives utility hook-up advantage (possible savings vs raw land). Room for toys, RVs, animals, expansion, no HOA lifestyle. The PRIVATE WELL provides valuable independence and TIME a value of approx. 25-30K—especially important with ongoing water concerns in the area. schedule your showing today!

20. 2025-10-29
    price $175,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Private Well! Rare 1.16-acre property at 2781 Ambler Way in Pahrump. 1.16 acres with existing single-wide mobile home 2 bd 1 Ba, ready for renovation or replacement, tiny home anyone! Existing structure gives utility hook-up advantage (possible savings vs raw land). Room for toys, RVs, animals, expansion, no HOA lifestyle. The PRIVATE WELL provides valuable independence and TIME a value of approx. 25-30K—especially important with ongoing water concerns in the area. schedule your showing today!

21. 2025-10-29
    historical $208,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Private Well! Rare 1.16-acre property at 2781 Ambler Way in Pahrump. 1.16 acres with existing single-wide mobile home 2 bd 1 Ba, ready for renovation or replacement, tiny home anyone! Existing structure gives utility hook-up advantage (possible savings vs raw land). Room for toys, RVs, animals, expansion, no HOA lifestyle. The PRIVATE WELL provides valuable independence and TIME a value of approx. 25-30K—especially important with ongoing water concerns in the area. schedule your showing today!

22. 2004-06-23
    soldstatus $97,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,215
• − Property taxes: −$2,468
• − Insurance: −$2,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,509
• − Management: −$1,509
• − Depreciation: −$4,785
• Taxable loss: −$2,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$698
• After-tax cash flow: $493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nye County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200360
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,447
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8110
• State rank: #16 of 17 in NV

Livability — Pahrump

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #9226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pahrump, NV
• County: Nye County · 47,491 people
• City population: 47,491
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• Population (ZIP): 12,864
• Household income: $50,000
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 170.0

Population outlook (Nye County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,727 people
• By 2030: 38,812 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 33,952 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 29,393 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 21,122 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 14,400 · -64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nye

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.0% · R 70.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+42.0 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.93%
• Current HPI: 312.3758
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

+69.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $164,500 GLVAR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $169,500 GLVAR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $174,500 GLVAR
• 2025-11-03 Listed $175,000 GLVAR
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $175,000 GLVAR
• 2025-10-29 Coming Soon $208,000 GLVAR
• 2004-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $327 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.