19 Tyrone Thomas Ln · Ellenville, NY 12428

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1902 4,792 sqft lot Est $507k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity or renovation-ready home! This classic two-story property offers a spacious layout with generous room sizes. Features include a large covered front porch, wood flooring, and a comfortable flow between living and kitchen areas.

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 1902

Tags

• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WOOD FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-378 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Ellenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#961 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Ellenville Central School District (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #534 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $507,236
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -41.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Park St	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,140 (+1%)	2mo	$275,000	$129	70
244 Canal St	0.21mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,936 (-9%)	1mo	$354,998	$183	65
6 Park St	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,208 (+4%)	8mo	$355,000	$161	61
129 Center St	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,934 (-9%)	22mo	$210,000	$109	57
15 Essex St #2	0.42mi	4/3.5	2,000 (-6%)	13mo	$330,000	$165	54
49 Warren St	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (-6%)	19mo	$402,000	$201	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $138,754
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $427,450
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12428

• Home prices YoY: 20.0%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,514/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,478

Max offer price $232,286

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Warren St Ellenville, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $299,000 Active 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   Investor opportunity or renovation-ready home! This classic two-story property offers a spacious layout with generous room sizes. Features include a large covered front porch, wood flooring, and a comfortable flow between living and kitchen areas.

3. 2026-04-21
   historical

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   Investor opportunity or renovation-ready home! This classic two-story property offers a spacious layout with generous room sizes. Features include a large covered front porch, wood flooring, and a comfortable flow between living and kitchen areas.

4. 2026-04-21
   listed $299,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   Investor opportunity or renovation-ready home! This classic two-story property offers a spacious layout with generous room sizes. Features include a large covered front porch, wood flooring, and a comfortable flow between living and kitchen areas.

5. 2025-12-26
   soldstatus $302,000
6. 2025-12-01
   soldstatus $302,000 Closed
7. 2025-10-30
   status Pending
8. 2025-10-28
   status Active
9. 2025-10-27
   historical
10. 2025-10-21
    listed $290,000
11. 2025-09-17
    status Pending
12. 2025-09-17
    historical
13. 2025-09-17
    listed $290,000 Active
14. 2025-07-04
    historical $1,575
15. 2025-06-06
    listed $1,575
16. 2025-06-01
    historical $1,575
17. 2025-03-12
    listed $1,575
18. 2021-10-27
    soldstatus $175,000
19. 2021-10-21
    soldstatus $175,500 Closed
20. 2021-04-12
    historical
21. 2021-01-19
    listed $199,000
22. 2021-01-18
    listed $199,000
23. 2019-01-17
    listed $119,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,514 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,784 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,269/yr (+$106/mo · 50.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥89°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,514
• − Insurance: −$2,162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$9,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,391
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellenville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610500
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,937
• Composite: 33.22/100
• National rank: #5525
• State rank: #534 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellenville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #961
• US rank: #18871

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,972

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 62.17%
• Current HPI: 372.5352
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+151.3% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $302,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-01 Sold (MLS) $302,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Listed $290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Listed $290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-04 Rental Removed $1,575 ONEKEY
• 2025-06-06 Listed for Rent $1,575 ONEKEY
• 2025-06-01 Rental Removed $1,575 ONEKEY
• 2025-03-12 Listed for Rent $1,575 ONEKEY
• 2021-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-21 Sold (MLS) $175,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-19 Listed $199,000 HVCRMLS
• 2021-01-18 Listed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-17 Listed $119,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,514 · +51.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.