3431 S 180th Pl #67 · SeaTac, WA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $604 – $1,122
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 88°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 7/10 · Major
- Unhealthy air days now
- 9 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 10 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Schools +3.9/10.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Rent growth +2.3/5.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$125,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Stunning doublewide for sale at Bow Lake (55+). 1999 Fleetwood: 3 Bed / 2 Bath with 1100 sq. ft. This home is loaded and ready for new memories! You'll find an updated kitchen with granite countertops, new flooring, stainless appliances, and new cabinets. Also featured: a separate room for laundry, new carpet, updated bathrooms, and two A/C units. You'll also enjoy a covered deck, a carport, a garage, and a massive storage shed. This home is incredible, and Bow Lake features many great amenities including a pool, a large clubhouse, and secured access. Come make it yours!
Key facts
- New flooring
- Stainless appliances
- New cabinets
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $993 ($12k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
- Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.1% in SeaTac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 78/100 on livability (#118 in WA, #2,417 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, cost of living F.
- Highline School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #200 of 291 in WA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.88% ✓
- Cap rate
- 15.83%
- Cash-on-cash
- 34.05%
- DSCR
- 2.52
- GRM
- 4.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $100,000
- List price
- $125,000
- Delta
- 25.00%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 9 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18153 31st Ave S #323 | 0.19mi | 3/2.0 | 1,176 (+5%) | 3mo | $260,000 | $221 | 80 |
| 18106 36th Pl S | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,140 (+2%) | 11mo | $38,000 | $33 | 80 |
| 3431 S 180th Pl #67 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,100 (-2%) | 22mo | $125,000 | $114 | 79 |
| 3222 S 183rd St | 0.16mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,180 (+5%) | 6mo | $19,500 | $17 | 74 |
| 18109 32nd Ave Ave S #331 | 0.17mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,012 (-10%) | 2mo | $100,000 | $99 | 70 |
| 3228 S 180th Pl #29 | 0.11mi | 3/2.0 | 1,200 (+7%) | 17mo | $145,000 | $121 | 69 |
| 3234 S 182nd St #154 | 0.12mi | 3/2.0 | 1,188 (+6%) | 23mo | $218,500 | $184 | 65 |
| 3420 S 180th Pl #41 | 0.02mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,255 (+12%) | 15mo | $58,000 | $46 | 61 |
| 3623 S 182nd St #482 | 0.11mi | 3/2.0 | 1,248 (+11%) | 23mo | $210,000 | $168 | 56 |
| 3206 S 184th St | 0.22mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,248 (+11%) | 16mo | $50,000 | $40 | 52 |
| 3215 S 184th St #265 | 0.22mi | 3/2.0 | 1,248 (+11%) | 23mo | $205,900 | $165 | 52 |
| 3403 S 181st St #99 | 0.06mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 960 (-14%) | 21mo | $163,500 | $170 | 51 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 26.0%
- Equity multiple
- 2.03×
- Total profit
- $36,146
- Equity at exit
- $18,638
- IRR
- 31.8%
- Equity multiple
- 3.47×
- Total profit
- $86,448
- Equity at exit
- $10,808
Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 28 Tenant-Leaning
- State Washington
- 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 98188
- Rents YoY
- -0.7%
- Active inventory
- 96
- Price-to-rent
- 4.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,351 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$656
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
- Insurance
- −$52
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$494
- Net cashflow
- $993
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $31,250
- Closing costs
- $3,750
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 19 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3508 S 180th St Seatac, WA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 793 | $2,025 | $2.55 | 12d | 4 | 0.14mi |
| 3715 S 182nd St Unit C125 Seatac, WA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1204 | $2,290 | $1.90 | 24d | 1 | 0.15mi |
| 17840 32nd Ave S Seatac, WA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–1.5 | 757 | $2,000 | $2.64 | 12d | 3 | 0.18mi |
| 18129 45th Ave S Seatac, WA | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1070 | $3,000 | $2.80 | 17d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 4410 S 173rd St Seatac, WA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 723 | $2,100 | $2.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 18912 46th Ave S Seatac, WA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $4,000 | $3.08 | 43d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 17932 51st Ave S Seatac, WA | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1420 | $3,400 | $2.39 | 43d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 17932 51st Ave S Seatac, WA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1420 | $3,350 | $2.36 | 1d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 4807 S 172nd Pl Seatac, WA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $2,550 | $3.64 | 43d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 4220 S 164th St Unit 3A Seattle, WA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,790 | $1.79 | 43d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 4220 S 164th St Unit 3C Seattle, WA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,790 | $1.79 | 1d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 19707 International Blvd Seatac, WA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 614 | $1,799 | $2.93 | 1d | 20 | 1.17mi |
| 19800 International Blvd Seatac, WA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–1.5 | 790 | $2,210 | $2.80 | 1d | 13 | 1.18mi |
| 19822 Military Rd S SeaTac, WA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1200 | $2,395 | $2.00 | 12d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 3445 S 160th St Seattle, WA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 730 | $1,800 | $2.47 | 2d | 5 | 1.29mi |
| 2929 S 200th St Seatac, WA | 2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 703 | $2,975 | $4.23 | 16d | 12 | 1.33mi |
| 2929 S 200th St Seatac, WA | 2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 703 | $2,975 | $4.23 | 1d | 7 | 1.33mi |
| 20036 30th Ave S Unit S9 SeaTac, WA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,795 | $2.39 | 10d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 20036 30th Ave S Unit S8 SeaTac, WA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,795 | $2.39 | 24d | 1 | 1.38mi |
Listing history 28 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $125,000 Active 317 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $125,000 Active 316 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $125,000 Active 315 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $125,000 Active 314 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $125,000 Active 312 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $125,000 Active 308 DOM
-
2026-06-08statusdays on market $125,000 Active 307 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $125,000 Active Under Contract 309 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $125,000 Active Under Contract 308 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $125,000 Active Under Contract 307 DOM
-
2026-05-19status Active Under Contract
-
2026-05-19status Pending
-
2026-02-11price $125,000
-
2025-07-28$140,000 Active
-
2024-08-30soldstatus $125,000 Closed
-
2024-07-29status Pending
-
2024-06-25status Active
-
2024-04-04status Pending
-
2024-03-05price $125,000
-
2024-02-05price $134,500
-
2024-01-03price $139,900
-
2023-11-16status Active
-
2023-11-16price $143,900
-
2023-11-11status Pending
-
2023-09-13status Active
-
2023-09-08status Pending
-
2023-08-29price $145,900
-
2023-08-11$149,500 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
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Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,208
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,002
- − Property taxes
- −$1,875
- − Insurance
- −$625
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,257
- − Management
- −$2,257
- − Depreciation
- −$3,636
- Taxable income
- $10,556
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,533
- After-tax cash flow
- $9,384/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This well-maintained, updated manufactured home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.
Value-add opportunities
- Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value
- Both painting — refreshes the home's appearance
- Both new flooring — updates the living areas and kitchen
Renovation cost estimate screening
Value-add ROI direction
- Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
- Both painting — refreshes the home's appearance ↑
- Both new flooring — updates the living areas and kitchen ↑
ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Highline School District
- NCES district ID
- 5303540
- Math proficiency
- 36% ▼ -4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 49% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $52,697
- Composite
- 39.12/100
- National rank
- #8245
- State rank
- #200 of 291 in WA
Livability — SeaTac
- Score
- 78/100
- State rank
- #118
- US rank
- #2417
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- SeaTac, WA
- County
- King County · 2,251,916 people
- City population
- 62,839
- Metro
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Population (ZIP)
- 27,311
- Household income
- $76,438
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1341.0
Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 2,576,485 people
- By 2030
- 2,803,316 · +8.8%
- By 2040
- 3,255,921 · +26.4%
- By 2050
- 3,706,444 · +43.9%
- By 2075
- 4,746,063 · +84.2%
- By 2100
- 5,407,730 · +109.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.79)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 28% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 21% Asian 15% Two or more races 10% Pacific Islander 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 16%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 41% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
- Languages at home
- 52% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 3%
Political lean MEDSL · King
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -595.95%
- Current HPI
- 334.4203
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.68%
- Metro
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.65%
- F500 in state
- 22
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | 2 | $269B |
|
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| Technology / Retail | 1 | $638B |
|
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| Technology | 1 | $245B |
|
||
| Telecommunications | 1 | $38B |
|
||
| Food / Beverage | 1 | $36B |
|
||
| Automotive / Trucks | 1 | $34B |
|
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Price history
-16.4% since first listed18 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-19 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-02-11 Price Changed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-07-28 Listed $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-08-30 Sold (MLS) $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-07-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-06-25 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-04-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-03-05 Price Changed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-02-05 Price Changed $134,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-01-03 Price Changed $139,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-11-16 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-11-16 Price Changed $143,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-11-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-09-13 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-09-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-08-29 Price Changed $145,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-08-11 Listed $149,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…