4559 Tavia Ln SW · Shallotte, NC 28470

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1998 0.78 ac lot Est $201k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you're looking for a quiet place at the beach, tucked away from all the hustle and bustle, this home in Shallotte Point may be the one. Situated on . 78 acre with no HOA, you have plenty of room for your boat, RV and all your toys without storing them off-site. Enjoy views of the Little Saucepan Creek, put your toes in the sand at Ocean Isle Beach or take your boat for a ride along the Intracoastal Waterway. This split bedroom floor plan has 1350 sq ft with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. The master bedroom has a large walk-in closet and soaking tub in the master bath. The kitchen has lots of counter & cabinet space and flows to the dining room. Features include: energy efficient mini-spli

Key facts

• Large deck
• Soaking tub
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• NO HOA
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SOAKING TUB
• ENERGY EFFICIENT MINI-SPLIT
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking (unpaved)
• Utilities: Public water; Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Shingle roof; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Deck; Rear porch; Has view; Irregular lot; Private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Laminate; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window unit(s) for cooling; Heating with electric, wood, and fireplace(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.0% in Shallotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#411 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union Elementary (math 83% / reading 76%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 571 students, 100% FRL); Shallotte Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 674 students, 100% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brunswick County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $180k implies a 666% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.47%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,150
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4362 Audell St SW	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-5%)	15mo	$185,000	$145	55
4511 Pigott Rd SW	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-12%)	14mo	$239,000	$201	51
4491 Live Oak St SW	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+9%)	24mo	$219,000	$149	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,264
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $17,339
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28470

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,752 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,355

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $180,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $180,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $180,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    listed $180,000 Active
14. 2006-07-13
    historical
15. 2006-01-13
    listed $99,900
16. 2004-02-01
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$861/yr (+$72/mo · 139.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
• − Management: −$1,682
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $824
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$198
• After-tax cash flow: $3,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Shallotte

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #15490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 11,219
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 11,219
• Household income: $65,030
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 455.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.91%
• Current HPI: 146.2303
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+666.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $180,000 Hive MLS
• 2006-07-13 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2006-01-13 Listed $99,900 Hive MLS
• 2004-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $615 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.