1230 Greenbriar · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Land · 88 Days on market

Built 2025 9,975 sqft lot $220/sqft · 28% below area Est $259k · 28% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1230 Greenbriar Drive-your brand-new 2025 single-wide manufactured home located in the desirable Tanglewood Shores community of Canyon Lake, TX. This stylish 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a well-designed split floor plan that offers comfort, privacy, and modern living throughout. Nestled on approximately 1/4 of an acre, the property provides ample outdoor space for relaxation, gatherings, or adding your personal touch. Inside, you'll find beautiful new finishes, including sleek black appliances and a newly installed HVAC unit for year-round comfort. The open-concept layout creates an inviting flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas-perfect for everyday living or weekend retreats. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway near Canyon Lake, or an investment property, this move-in ready home offers exceptional value in a peaceful Hill Country setting. Don't miss the opportunity to make this brand-new home yours!

Key facts

• Black appliances
• Move-in ready
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• NEWLY INSTALLED HVAC
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MOVE-IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-514/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca Creek El (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 605 students, 51% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 31% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1029 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,929 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,511
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -28.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-36,791
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-51,356
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1029
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $904/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,423

Max offer price $177,438

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $10	+0% $-43	+5% $-95	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-97	+0% $-43	+5% $11	+10% $65
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $4	base $-43	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $185,000 Pending 88 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Active Option 88 DOM
3. 2026-04-16
   price $1,400
4. 2026-03-04
   listed $185,000 New 983-char remark

   Show marketing remark (983 chars)

   Welcome to 1230 Greenbriar Drive-your brand-new 2025 single-wide manufactured home located in the desirable Tanglewood Shores community of Canyon Lake, TX. This stylish 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a well-designed split floor plan that offers comfort, privacy, and modern living throughout. Nestled on approximately 1/4 of an acre, the property provides ample outdoor space for relaxation, gatherings, or adding your personal touch. Inside, you'll find beautiful new finishes, including sleek black appliances and a newly installed HVAC unit for year-round comfort. The open-concept layout creates an inviting flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas-perfect for everyday living or weekend retreats. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway near Canyon Lake, or an investment property, this move-in ready home offers exceptional value in a peaceful Hill Country setting. Don't miss the opportunity to make this brand-new home yours!

5. 2026-03-02
   listed $2,000
6. 2026-03-01
   historical
7. 2025-11-29
   listed $185,000 New
8. 2025-02-26
   soldstatus Sold
9. 2025-02-26
   soldstatus
10. 2025-02-10
    status Pending
11. 2025-01-29
    price $18,000
12. 2025-01-16
    price $20,000
13. 2025-01-11
    price $22,500
14. 2024-12-20
    price $25,000
15. 2024-11-23
    price $30,000
16. 2024-09-25
    price $47,000
17. 2024-08-27
    price $48,000
18. 2024-08-09
    listed $50,000 New
19. 2015-02-23
    soldstatus
20. 2015-02-20
    soldstatus
21. 2013-02-10
    listed $5,000
22. 2009-12-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,482/yr (+$207/mo · 274.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$904
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$911
• After-tax cash flow: $397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-72.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $1,400 SABOR
• 2026-03-04 Listed $185,000 LERA
• 2026-03-02 Listed for Rent $2,000 SABOR
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-11-29 Listed $185,000 LERA
• 2025-02-26 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2025-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-10 Pending — LERA
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $18,000 LERA
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $20,000 LERA
• 2025-01-11 Price Changed $22,500 LERA
• 2024-12-20 Price Changed $25,000 LERA
• 2024-11-23 Price Changed $30,000 LERA
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $47,000 LERA
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $48,000 LERA
• 2024-08-09 Listed $50,000 LERA
• 2015-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-02-20 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2013-02-10 Listed $5,000 Unlock MLS
• 2009-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $904 · +53.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.