16109 Prairie Ave · South Holland, IL 60473

$204,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,159 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 210 Days on market

Built 1968 7,220 sqft lot Est $202k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath split-level home tucked into a quiet South Holland residential block. The main level offers a comfortable, practical layout with hardwood floors and plenty of natural light, along with central A/C and gas heat for year-round comfort. The kitchen has plentiful counter space and stainless steel appliances, creating a clean, functional workspace. A finished lower level provides a cozy family room and dedicated laundry area. Outside, a deck and a detached 2-car garage gives you ample room for parking, play, and outdoor entertaining. Located near neighborhood parks, the home also offers straightforward access to major routes, including I-94, for commutin

Key facts

• Deck
• Hardwood floors
• Finished lower level

Tags

• UPDATED SPLIT-LEVEL HOME
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: Assessor; Possession at closing; Directions: From I-94 travel west on Route 6 and turn north on Prairie Avenue into the neighborhood
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 garage spaces, 2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Split-level / tri-level design; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Built approximately 51–60 years ago; Property built before 1978
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 76 x 95; Lot smaller than 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (12 x 10)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom on second level (13 x 12); Second bedroom on second level (13 x 10); Third bedroom on second level (10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath; Basement has a bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished partial basement; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in basement (16 x 9)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $204k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D+.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $204k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.66%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,666
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16061 Wabash Ave	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,159 (0%)	6mo	$235,000	$203	93
112 E 160th Pl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,141 (-2%)	2mo	$210,000	$184	89
509 E 161st Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+2%)	4mo	$182,000	$155	65
15750 Woodlawn West Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,210 (+4%)	6mo	$137,000	$113	65
64 E 158th Pl	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,250 (+8%)	3mo	$185,000	$148	65
1 E 164th St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,255 (+8%)	5mo	$195,000	$155	63
15536 State St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,212 (+5%)	4mo	$140,000	$116	54
16417 Claire Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,209 (+4%)	2mo	$254,995	$211	54
429 E 164th Pl	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,230 (+6%)	7mo	$210,000	$171	53
16550 Elm Ct	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,144 (-1%)	4mo	$252,000	$220	51
519 E 161st St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-12%)	5mo	$210,000	$205	47
15944 School St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-13%)	4mo	$175,000	$174	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,519
• Equity at exit: $30,417

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $22,909
• Equity at exit: $17,638

Cash invested: $57,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60473

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,818 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax from tax record: −$707 /mo · $8,484/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,357

Max offer price $204,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $422	+0% $365	+5% $307	+10% $249
Rent	-10% $142	-5% $253	+0% $365	+5% $476	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $416	base $365	+0.5pp $312	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,000
• Closing costs: $6,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	8d	1	1.00mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	25d	1	1.00mi
15238 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 2W Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	11d	1	1.14mi
16048 Halsted St Unit 2 Harvey, IL	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,650	$1.51	25d	1	1.17mi
16246 Dobson Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,170	$2.54	2d	1	1.18mi
16001 Avalon Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1136	$3,330	$2.93	6d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $204,000 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $206,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $206,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $206,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $206,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $206,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $206,000 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $206,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $206,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $206,000 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $206,000 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $206,000 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $206,000 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $206,000 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $206,000 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $206,000
17. 2026-04-17
    price $208,000
18. 2026-02-27
    price $210,000
19. 2026-02-06
    price $217,000
20. 2026-01-16
    price $224,000
21. 2025-12-19
    price $233,000
22. 2025-11-20
    listed $238,000 Active
23. 2018-05-16
    soldstatus $121,000
24. 2016-01-01
    historical
25. 2015-10-19
    listed New
26. 2015-01-12
    historical
27. 2014-09-07
    price Price Change
28. 2014-08-17
    listed New
29. 2014-08-07
    historical
30. 2014-07-26
    listed New
31. 2014-01-31
    historical
32. 2013-11-15
    soldstatus $76,500
33. 2013-11-01
    price Price Change
34. 2013-10-24
    listed New
35. 2013-10-07
    soldstatus $76,211 Closed Sale
36. 2013-09-19
    status Pending
37. 2013-09-05
    historical
38. 2013-07-22
    status Reactivated
39. 2013-06-18
    historical
40. 2013-05-31
    listed $69,900 New
41. 2012-03-22
    historical
42. 2012-02-04
    listed New
43. 2007-09-29
    historical
44. 2007-06-22
    listed
45. 2007-06-18
    historical
46. 2007-05-17
    listed
47. 2007-05-12
    historical
48. 2007-04-11
    listed
49. 2007-04-07
    historical
50. 2007-03-06
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,484 · $707/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,484 · $707/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,427
• − Property taxes: −$8,484
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,705
• − Management: −$2,705
• − Depreciation: −$5,935
• Taxable income: $1,541
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$370
• After-tax cash flow: $4,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — South Holland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #3071

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Holland, IL
• City population: 21,407
• Population (ZIP): 21,407

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.36%
• Current HPI: 201.2479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+71.7% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $206,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $208,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $210,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $217,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $224,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $233,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listed $238,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-19 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-12 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-07 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-17 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-07 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-26 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-31 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 2013-11-01 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-24 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-07 Sold (MLS) $76,211 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-19 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-22 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-18 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-31 Listed $69,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-22 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-04 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-29 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-22 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-18 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-17 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-12 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-11 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-07 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-06 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-04 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $8,484 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.