225 Whittier Dr · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$539,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1975 0.42 ac lot Est $612k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath Colonial situated on just shy of 1/2-acre property in Mastic Beach. This home features a living room, dining room, eat-in kitchen, and den, offering a functional layout with great living space. Updates include a newer roof, central air conditioning, siding, and private driveway. The property also features an 11-zone in-ground sprinkler system (IGS) and a spacious yard with plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, parks, and major roadways.

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private parking (total 4 spaces); Driveway; Garage (2 spaces); Off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Phone available; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Property condition: Actual; Full attic; No basement
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Smoke detectors; Back yard; Front yard; Level lot; Sprinklers in front; Sprinklers in rear

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two levels (total rooms: 7)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Storage; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $539k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-689 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $417k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $377k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $377k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$93k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($523k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $377,210 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $612,238
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
268 Beaver Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-8%)	7mo	$490,000	$327	68
206 Longfellow Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+7%)	13mo	$560,000	$320	67
316 Whittier Dr	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,600 (-2%)	9mo	$560,000	$350	62
23 Washington Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-2%)	11mo	$525,000	$328	60
200 Orchid Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-15%)	13mo	$535,000	$383	57
42 Biltmore Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,726 (+5%)	1mo	$645,000	$374	55
290 Cypress Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,808 (+10%)	10mo	$570,000	$315	52
49 Barclay Rd	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,591 (-3%)	1mo	$630,000	$396	51
189 Beaver Dr	0.54mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,470 (-10%)	3mo	$560,000	$381	50
5 Baker Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,428 (-13%)	3mo	$540,000	$378	48
79A Alder Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-14%)	11mo	$545,000	$385	46
30 Washington Ave	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,808 (+10%)	13mo	$550,000	$304	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $249,722
• Equity at exit: $485,574

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $769,920
• Equity at exit: $1,047,158

Cash invested: $150,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,772 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax from tax record: −$617 /mo · $7,408/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$792
• Net cashflow: $-689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,644

Max offer price $417,365

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,750
• Closing costs: $16,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	44d	1	0.33mi
149 Washington Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$3,400	$2.95	1d	1	0.59mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	1.38mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   listed $539,000 Active
3. 2026-03-11
   historical $539,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,408 · $617/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,259 · $688/mo
• Expected delta: +$850/yr (+$71/mo · 11.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,192
• − Property taxes: −$7,408
• − Insurance: −$2,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,621
• − Management: −$3,621
• − Depreciation: −$15,680
• Taxable loss: −$17,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,309
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $539,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Coming Soon $539,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,408 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.