1731 Mill Rd · East Aurora, NY 14170

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,726 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1952 10,019 sqft lot $174/sqft · 39% below area Est $494k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Have you been searching high and low? Maybe a little renovation is the way to go! Put your mark on this spacious mid century 3BR/2BA home. Located near the quaint Griffins Mills hamlet and just south of the Village of East Aurora. This great home features a beautiful fireplace in living room, updated windows, roof and boiler, spacious 1+ car garage, generous bedroom sizes, and all appliances are included. Act quickly on this great opportunity for an affordable home in sought after East Aurora School District!

Key facts

• Farm style sink
• Brick fireplace
• New wood accent wall

Tags

• FARM STYLE SINK
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERS
• NEWER WINDOWS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• NEW WOOD ACCENT WALL
• BRICK FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Brick, shake siding, vinyl siding, and wood siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Patio; Fully fenced yard; Blacktop driveway; Rectangular lot (75 x 166)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Pull-down attic stairs; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (60.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (57.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (60.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#81 in NY, #1,241 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• East Aurora Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #189 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $189k; list at $300k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,504 (60.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.97%
• DSCR: 0.25
• GRM: 19.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $494,346
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -39.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $87,812
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $318,245
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14170

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 19.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,975/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-1,187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,779

Max offer price $119,504

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $299,900 Active 1334-char remark
2. 2022-12-29
   soldstatus $189,000
3. 2022-12-22
   soldstatus $189,000 Closed Sale or Rented 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Have you been searching high and low? Maybe a little renovation is the way to go! Put your mark on this spacious mid century 3BR/2BA home. Located near the quaint Griffins Mills hamlet and just south of the Village of East Aurora. This great home features a beautiful fireplace in living room, updated windows, roof and boiler, spacious 1+ car garage, generous bedroom sizes, and all appliances are included. Act quickly on this great opportunity for an affordable home in sought after East Aurora School District!

4. 2022-10-27
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Have you been searching high and low? Maybe a little renovation is the way to go! Put your mark on this spacious mid century 3BR/2BA home. Located near the quaint Griffins Mills hamlet and just south of the Village of East Aurora. This great home features a beautiful fireplace in living room, updated windows, roof and boiler, spacious 1+ car garage, generous bedroom sizes, and all appliances are included. Act quickly on this great opportunity for an affordable home in sought after East Aurora School District!

5. 2022-10-13
   listed $199,900 Active 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   Have you been searching high and low? Maybe a little renovation is the way to go! Put your mark on this spacious mid century 3BR/2BA home. Located near the quaint Griffins Mills hamlet and just south of the Village of East Aurora. This great home features a beautiful fireplace in living room, updated windows, roof and boiler, spacious 1+ car garage, generous bedroom sizes, and all appliances are included. Act quickly on this great opportunity for an affordable home in sought after East Aurora School District!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,975 · $498/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,975 · $498/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,975
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$20,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,832
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Aurora Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609540
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,345
• Composite: 54.63/100
• National rank: #1334
• State rank: #189 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Aurora

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1241

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,200

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Slovak 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.31%
• Current HPI: 342.7316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $299,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-22 Sold (MLS) $189,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-10-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-10-13 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,975 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.