914 Chase St · Newkirk, MI 49656

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

0.65 ac lot Est $111k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Luther Estate Property 2-bedroom 1 bath Living room side porch Kitchen with Dining area Laundry, 2 stall unattached garage on a very large corner lot, all reasonable offers will be considered

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($903 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pine River Area Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine River Area Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 295 students, 70% FRL); Pine River Area Middle School (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #388 of 493 statewide, top 80%, 262 students, 63% FRL); Pine River Area High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #441 of 713 statewide, top 64%, 417 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.63%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,150
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
914 Chase St	0.00mi	2/1.0	950 (0%)	1mo	$76,200	$80	99
711 Pine St. St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+3%)	21mo	$115,000	$117	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $39,042
• Equity at exit: $56,300

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $105,759
• Equity at exit: $107,798

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49656

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $903 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $189	+0% $161	+5% $133	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $125	+0% $161	+5% $197	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $181	base $161	+0.5pp $140	+1.0pp $119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-04
   status Pending 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Luther Estate Property 2-bedroom 1 bath Living room side porch Kitchen with Dining area Laundry, 2 stall unattached garage on a very large corner lot, all reasonable offers will be considered

2. 2026-02-04
   status Pending 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Luther Estate Property 2-bedroom 1 bath Living room side porch Kitchen with Dining area Laundry, 2 stall unattached garage on a very large corner lot, all reasonable offers will be considered

3. 2026-02-04
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Luther Estate Property 2-bedroom 1 bath Living room side porch Kitchen with Dining area Laundry, 2 stall unattached garage on a very large corner lot, all reasonable offers will be considered

4. 2026-01-08
   listed $79,900 Active 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Luther Estate Property 2-bedroom 1 bath Living room side porch Kitchen with Dining area Laundry, 2 stall unattached garage on a very large corner lot, all reasonable offers will be considered

5. 2026-01-08
   listed $79,900 Active 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Luther Estate Property 2-bedroom 1 bath Living room side porch Kitchen with Dining area Laundry, 2 stall unattached garage on a very large corner lot, all reasonable offers will be considered

6. 2026-01-08
   listed $79,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Luther Estate Property 2-bedroom 1 bath Living room side porch Kitchen with Dining area Laundry, 2 stall unattached garage on a very large corner lot, all reasonable offers will be considered

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$867
• − Management: −$867
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $701
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine River Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2628200
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,589
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #7475
• State rank: #369 of 540 in MI

Livability — Newkirk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Luther, MI
• Population (ZIP): 2,111

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Current HPI: 216.7299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-04 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-04 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $31 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.