3538 Mountain Rd · Washington, PA 18080

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,982 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 1945 Poor condition 1.00 ac lot $100/sqft · 47% below area Est $375k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cash only, Traditional Financing fell through. Discover the opportunity of a lifetime with this charming Cape Cod-style property set on a picturesque 1-acre lot in a peaceful rural setting. Offering two separate residential units and two spacious garages, this property is perfect for multi-generational living or rental income potential. The main home features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and a large, unfinished room ready for your personal touch. The second unit, approximately 630 sq ft, includes 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom, offering a cozy retreat. Enjoy the benefit of artesian well water and the freedom to shape this property to suit your vision. With some TLC, this property delivers incredible value and endless possibilities for the right buyer. Schedule your showing today and explore the potential!

Key facts

• Artesian well water
• Two spacious garages
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• TWO SEPARATE RESIDENTIAL UNITS
• TWO SPACIOUS GARAGES
• ARTESIAN WELL WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#77 in PA, #558 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D-.
• Northern Lehigh SD (suburban): math 24% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #398 of 539 in PA (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $162,209 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,159
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -46.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-38,196
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-40,853
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18080

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $185,428

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4029 Main St Unit B Slatedale, PA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	44d	1	1.29mi
4033 W Grant St #10 Slatington, PA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,575	$0.88	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-03-11
    listed $199,000 Active 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Cash only, Traditional Financing fell through. Discover the opportunity of a lifetime with this charming Cape Cod-style property set on a picturesque 1-acre lot in a peaceful rural setting. Offering two separate residential units and two spacious garages, this property is perfect for multi-generational living or rental income potential. The main home features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and a large, unfinished room ready for your personal touch. The second unit, approximately 630 sq ft, includes 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom, offering a cozy retreat. Enjoy the benefit of artesian well water and the freedom to shape this property to suit your vision. With some TLC, this property delivers incredible value and endless possibilities for the right buyer. Schedule your showing today and explore the potential!

16. 2026-03-10
    historical
17. 2026-03-10
    historical
18. 2026-02-18
    price $199,000
19. 2026-02-18
    price $199,000
20. 2026-02-09
    status Active
21. 2026-02-09
    price $205,000
22. 2026-02-09
    status Active
23. 2026-02-09
    price $205,000
24. 2025-12-11
    status Pending
25. 2025-12-11
    status Pending
26. 2025-12-11
    price $215,000
27. 2025-12-01
    price $215,000
28. 2025-12-01
    price $21,500
29. 2025-10-27
    historical
30. 2025-09-19
    price $232,500
31. 2025-09-19
    price $232,500
32. 2025-09-19
    price $23,250
33. 2025-07-17
    status Active
34. 2025-06-14
    listed $235,000 Active
35. 2025-06-14
    listed $235,000 Active
36. 2005-10-03
    soldstatus $169,900
37. 2005-04-22
    listed $169,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,096
• After-tax cash flow: $-30/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 30/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations to bring it up to a livable standard. Immediate repairs and maintenance are necessary to ensure safety and functionality. With proper updates, it has significant potential for both resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed wiring in kitchen — Safety hazard
• Major Missing kitchen cabinets — Functionality lost
• Major Damaged ceiling in kitchen — Structural issue
• Major Worn fixtures in bathroom — Aesthetic and functionality
• Major Overgrown vegetation around property — Aesthetic and potential pest issues

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances aesthetics and value
• Both Replace flooring — Improves functionality and appearance
• Both Fix roof — Ensures structural integrity and longevity
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Restores functionality and enhances value
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Enhances aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed wiring in kitchen · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing kitchen cabinets · Functionality lost	Major	$15,000–50,000
Damaged ceiling in kitchen · Structural issue	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn fixtures in bathroom · Aesthetic and functionality	Major	$15,000–50,000
Overgrown vegetation around property · Aesthetic and potential pest issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Fix roof — Ensures structural integrity and longevity ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Restores functionality and enhances value ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Enhances aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northern Lehigh SD
• NCES district ID: 4217670
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,733
• Composite: 31.22/100
• National rank: #6035
• State rank: #398 of 539 in PA

Livability — Washington

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #558

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lehigh County · 333,019 people
• City population: 50,348
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 11,226
• Household income: $74,522
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 111.0

Population outlook (Lehigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,957 people
• By 2030: 408,319 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 440,007 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 475,940 · +21.1%
• By 2075: 590,448 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 690,314 · +75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 7% Subsaharan African 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lehigh

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.7 2020: D+7.6 2016: D+4.4 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.90%
• Current HPI: 295.1228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+17.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $199,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $199,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $199,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — GLVRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $205,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — GLVRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $205,000 GLVRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $215,000 GLVRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $215,000 GLVRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $21,500 GLVRMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $232,500 GLVRMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $232,500 GLVRMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $23,250 GLVRMLS
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — GLVRMLS
• 2025-06-14 Listed $235,000 GLVRMLS
• 2025-06-14 Listed $235,000 GLVRMLS
• 2005-10-03 Sold (MLS) $169,900 GLVRMLS
• 2005-04-22 Listed $169,900 GLVRMLS