17223 W Country Gables Dr · Surprise, AZ 85388

$389,900

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,291 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2003 5,500 sqft lot $170/sqft · 8% below area Est $422k · 8% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2-story home featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a functional layout. The living areas offer plenty of room to relax or entertain. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space with easy flow to the dining area. One bedroom and full bath on the main level offer flexibility for guests or office space. The primary suite and additional bedrooms upstairs provide comfortable living space. Enjoy a private backyard with room to create your ideal outdoor retreat.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Functional layout
• 5,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Hills Elementary (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #367 of 1,109 statewide, top 33%, 969 students, 42% FRL); Shadow Ridge High School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #88 of 381 statewide, top 24%, 2,323 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $390k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,930 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.01%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $421,815
• List price: $389,900
• Delta: -7.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17263 W Ironwood St	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,285 (-0%)	3mo	$425,000	$186	64
15721 N 172nd Ln	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,403 (+5%)	1mo	$420,000	$175	61
17431 W Meadow Ln	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,194 (-4%)	4mo	$515,000	$235	58
14906 N 174th Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,048 (-11%)	2mo	$354,900	$173	55
17630 W Spring Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,222 (-3%)	2mo	$420,000	$189	54
17468 W Crocus Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,401 (+5%)	0mo	$425,000	$177	53
15952 N 173rd Ave	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,379 (+4%)	1mo	$439,900	$185	53
17573 W Mandalay Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,048 (-11%)	1mo	$364,500	$178	48
17024 W Marshall Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,426 (+6%)	0mo	$425,000	$175	46
17514 W Marshall Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,379 (+4%)	1mo	$520,000	$219	45
17627 W Evans Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,087 (-9%)	1mo	$425,000	$204	42
16912 W Saguaro Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,567 (+12%)	1mo	$502,525	$196	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-31,692
• Equity at exit: $118,789

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-24,211
• Equity at exit: $147,318

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,737/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,066

Max offer price $341,554

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-163	+0% $-274	+5% $-384	+10% $-494
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-381	+0% $-274	+5% $-166	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-175	base $-274	+0.5pp $-375	+1.0pp $-477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17236 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	45d	1	0.05mi
14945 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,099	$1.24	7d	1	0.05mi
15143 N 172nd Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	45d	1	0.08mi
17229 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,245	$0.98	6d	1	0.17mi
17395 W Langer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1902	$1,995	$1.05	26d	1	0.23mi
15164 N 173rd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2048	$2,495	$1.22	26d	1	0.25mi
17273 W Carmen Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	3166	$2,800	$0.88	13d	1	0.28mi
17440 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2159	$2,300	$1.07	4d	1	0.31mi
17331 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2403	$2,295	$0.96	45d	1	0.46mi
17315 W Tara Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,500	$1.05	13d	1	0.55mi
16003 N Cristine Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,200	$0.92	45d	1	0.62mi
16903 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2426	$2,295	$0.95	45d	1	0.64mi
17753 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2453	$2,245	$0.92	26d	1	0.66mi
17818 W Acapulco Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,045	$1.06	45d	1	0.72mi
17610 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2149	$2,150	$1.00	6d	1	0.77mi
17127 W Statler St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2543	$2,600	$1.02	26d	1	0.78mi
17762 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3318	$3,530	$1.06	26d	1	0.78mi
17912 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2151	$2,155	$1.00	19d	1	0.83mi
17747 W Ventura St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$1,845	$0.93	45d	1	0.85mi
17856 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3336	$3,200	$0.96	26d	1	0.87mi
17932 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2635	$2,195	$0.83	45d	1	0.87mi
16444 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$2,795	$1.22	13d	1	0.88mi
17722 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,185	$1.24	4d	1	0.89mi
17867 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1767	$3,500	$1.98	45d	1	0.89mi
16818 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2567	$1,895	$0.74	17d	1	0.91mi
16663 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2192	$2,195	$1.00	0d	1	0.94mi
16121 N 168th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2567	$2,695	$1.05	26d	1	0.94mi
13559 N 174th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2147	$2,200	$1.02	22d	1	0.96mi
18089 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2313	$2,101	$0.91	26d	1	1.15mi
17259 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2190	$2,150	$0.98	7d	1	1.17mi
13103 N 174th Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	2.5	2899	$3,500	$1.21	45d	1	1.23mi
16124 N 180th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2958	$2,795	$0.94	7d	1	1.26mi
18096 W Paradise Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,315	$1.12	45d	1	1.29mi
16189 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1602	$2,069	$1.29	4d	1	1.31mi
18188 W Paradise Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1941	$2,200	$1.13	45d	1	1.40mi
16037 W Custer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,045	$1.00	45d	1	1.43mi
17176 W Corrine Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,000	$1.19	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $389,900 Pending 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $389,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $399,900 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Spacious 2-story home featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a functional layout. The living areas offer plenty of room to relax or entertain. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space with easy flow to the dining area. One bedroom and full bath on the main level offer flexibility for guests or office space. The primary suite and additional bedrooms upstairs provide comfortable living space. Enjoy a private backyard with room to create your ideal outdoor retreat.

16. 2026-04-16
    listed $415,000 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Spacious 2-story home featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a functional layout. The living areas offer plenty of room to relax or entertain. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space with easy flow to the dining area. One bedroom and full bath on the main level offer flexibility for guests or office space. The primary suite and additional bedrooms upstairs provide comfortable living space. Enjoy a private backyard with room to create your ideal outdoor retreat.

17. 2013-08-12
    soldstatus $179,900 Closed 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Spacious 5 bedroom 3 bath home in Sierra Montana subdivision*One bedroom and a full bath downstairs*3 bedrooms,2 full baths,an office and large den upstairs*Large kitchen w/island and pantry*Beautiful stainless steel appliances*This home sits on an oversized lot and backs to a grassy common area.

18. 2013-08-12
    soldstatus $179,900

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Spacious 5 bedroom 3 bath home in Sierra Montana subdivision*One bedroom and a full bath downstairs*3 bedrooms,2 full baths,an office and large den upstairs*Large kitchen w/island and pantry*Beautiful stainless steel appliances*This home sits on an oversized lot and backs to a grassy common area.

19. 2013-07-24
    status Pending 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Spacious 5 bedroom 3 bath home in Sierra Montana subdivision*One bedroom and a full bath downstairs*3 bedrooms,2 full baths,an office and large den upstairs*Large kitchen w/island and pantry*Beautiful stainless steel appliances*This home sits on an oversized lot and backs to a grassy common area.

20. 2013-07-19
    listed $179,900 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Spacious 5 bedroom 3 bath home in Sierra Montana subdivision*One bedroom and a full bath downstairs*3 bedrooms,2 full baths,an office and large den upstairs*Large kitchen w/island and pantry*Beautiful stainless steel appliances*This home sits on an oversized lot and backs to a grassy common area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,737 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,573 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$836/yr (+$70/mo · 48.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$1,737
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,611
• − Management: −$2,611
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$10,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,472
• After-tax cash flow: $-812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+122.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $399,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $415,000 ARMLS
• 2013-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $179,900 Public Records
• 2013-08-12 Sold (MLS) $179,900 ARMLS
• 2013-07-24 Pending — ARMLS
• 2013-07-19 Listed $179,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,737 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.