18909 Aripeka Rd · Aripeka, FL 34667

$109,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Other public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1954 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 units in quaint Aripeka on the main road, just minutes to the new Sun West Park. This old Florida property has a lot of possibilities. There is an art gallery in the front unit, and 3 rental units behind. The back unit open to a beautiful open view of the water and wetlands, with a fishing dock on the property. Building needs a lot of work, tenants are month to month.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Conveniently located
• Natural surroundings

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• RENOVATION OPPORTUNITY
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• WATERFRONT INVESTMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.28 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Property zoned R2
• HOA & community: No HOA/association listed

Exterior

• Parking: No parking information listed
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence (residential); One level; Fixer condition; Faces north
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built using frame/stucco materials
• Exterior features: Porch; Chain link fencing; Other exterior features; On waterfront with canal (saltwater) and lagoon access; Water access available; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#850 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 799 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,259/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $110k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.16%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $14,291
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $37,535
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 799
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,587/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,495

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $666	-5% $634	+0% $603	+5% $572	+10% $541
Rent	-10% $425	-5% $514	+0% $603	+5% $693	+10% $782
Rate	-1.0pp $659	-0.5pp $631	base $603	+0.5pp $575	+1.0pp $546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10114 Briar Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,000	$1.31	25d	1	1.04mi
18802 Whiterock Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,995	$1.31	5d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,900 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $109,900 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    status Active
15. 2026-05-11
    historical
16. 2025-11-11
    listed $109,900 Active
17. 2016-05-24
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    4 units in quaint Aripeka on the main road, just minutes to the new Sun West Park. This old Florida property has a lot of possibilities. There is an art gallery in the front unit, and 3 rental units behind. The back unit open to a beautiful open view of the water and wetlands, with a fishing dock on the property. Building needs a lot of work, tenants are month to month.

18. 2016-05-09
    status Pending 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    4 units in quaint Aripeka on the main road, just minutes to the new Sun West Park. This old Florida property has a lot of possibilities. There is an art gallery in the front unit, and 3 rental units behind. The back unit open to a beautiful open view of the water and wetlands, with a fishing dock on the property. Building needs a lot of work, tenants are month to month.

19. 2016-04-21
    price $69,000 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    4 units in quaint Aripeka on the main road, just minutes to the new Sun West Park. This old Florida property has a lot of possibilities. There is an art gallery in the front unit, and 3 rental units behind. The back unit open to a beautiful open view of the water and wetlands, with a fishing dock on the property. Building needs a lot of work, tenants are month to month.

20. 2016-04-20
    status Active 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    4 units in quaint Aripeka on the main road, just minutes to the new Sun West Park. This old Florida property has a lot of possibilities. There is an art gallery in the front unit, and 3 rental units behind. The back unit open to a beautiful open view of the water and wetlands, with a fishing dock on the property. Building needs a lot of work, tenants are month to month.

21. 2016-04-16
    status Pending 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    4 units in quaint Aripeka on the main road, just minutes to the new Sun West Park. This old Florida property has a lot of possibilities. There is an art gallery in the front unit, and 3 rental units behind. The back unit open to a beautiful open view of the water and wetlands, with a fishing dock on the property. Building needs a lot of work, tenants are month to month.

22. 2016-04-15
    historical 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    4 units in quaint Aripeka on the main road, just minutes to the new Sun West Park. This old Florida property has a lot of possibilities. There is an art gallery in the front unit, and 3 rental units behind. The back unit open to a beautiful open view of the water and wetlands, with a fishing dock on the property. Building needs a lot of work, tenants are month to month.

23. 2016-04-07
    status Pending 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    4 units in quaint Aripeka on the main road, just minutes to the new Sun West Park. This old Florida property has a lot of possibilities. There is an art gallery in the front unit, and 3 rental units behind. The back unit open to a beautiful open view of the water and wetlands, with a fishing dock on the property. Building needs a lot of work, tenants are month to month.

24. 2016-04-05
    price $79,900 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    4 units in quaint Aripeka on the main road, just minutes to the new Sun West Park. This old Florida property has a lot of possibilities. There is an art gallery in the front unit, and 3 rental units behind. The back unit open to a beautiful open view of the water and wetlands, with a fishing dock on the property. Building needs a lot of work, tenants are month to month.

25. 2015-11-12
    listed $89,900 Active 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    4 units in quaint Aripeka on the main road, just minutes to the new Sun West Park. This old Florida property has a lot of possibilities. There is an art gallery in the front unit, and 3 rental units behind. The back unit open to a beautiful open view of the water and wetlands, with a fishing dock on the property. Building needs a lot of work, tenants are month to month.

26. 2015-08-05
    historical
27. 2015-04-23
    price $99,900
28. 2015-02-12
    price $119,900
29. 2014-12-12
    status Active
30. 2014-12-06
    historical
31. 2014-08-06
    listed $149,000 Active
32. 2013-09-04
    listed $190,000
33. 2008-01-14
    soldstatus $92,500
34. 2008-01-08
    soldstatus $92,500
35. 2007-09-13
    listed $107,000
36. 2006-11-02
    listed $179,900
37. 2006-07-13
    listed $214,500
38. 1979-04-01
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,587
• − Insurance: −$5,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $6,158
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,478
• After-tax cash flow: $5,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Aripeka

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #850
• US rank: #21736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aripeka, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+292.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-24 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-21 Price Changed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-05 Price Changed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-12 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-23 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-12 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-06 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-04 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2008-01-08 Sold (MLS) $92,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-13 Listed $107,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-02 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-13 Listed $214,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1979-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,587 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.