321 Ariana Ave · Auburndale, FL 33823

$150,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1956 7,758 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Auction Property. Auction Property. 3 bedroom 2-bathroom ranch home with 1,620 square feet of living space sitting on 7,758 square foot corner lot in City of Auburndale. The house will need a total renovation, roof, wiring striped, A/C. Seller discloses that the property was previously used for methamphetamine-related activity. Seller has no knowledge of current hazardous contamination conditions beyond any remediation work completed. Buyers are advised to conduct all inspections and due diligence, including environmental testing if desired. Property is being sold as-is. All buyers are responsible to confirm City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction before bidding.

Key facts

• 7,758 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.18 acres; Living area reported as 1620 (appraiser); Total rooms: 8
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property; One story; Faces east; Zoned RG1
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Other foundation details; Building area reported by appraiser
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $151k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $151k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $151k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,636 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.00%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,944
• Equity at exit: $22,500

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $39,189
• Equity at exit: $13,047

Cash invested: $42,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$791
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,851/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $150,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $508	-5% $465	+0% $423	+5% $380	+10% $337
Rent	-10% $263	-5% $343	+0% $423	+5% $503	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $461	base $423	+0.5pp $384	+1.0pp $344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,725
• Closing costs: $4,527
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Jana Cir Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	1.33mi
609 Marianna Rd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,730	$1.46	24d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $150,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,829 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,829 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $158,829 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $158,829 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,829 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,829 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,829 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,829 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $158,829 Active
16. 2026-05-14
    historical
17. 2026-05-07
    price $158,829
18. 2026-03-18
    listed $172,640 Active
19. 2002-01-10
    soldstatus $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,851 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,851 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,453
• − Property taxes: −$3,851
• − Insurance: −$754
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − Depreciation: −$4,390
• Taxable income: $2,938
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$705
• After-tax cash flow: $4,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+112.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $158,829 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $158,829 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $172,640 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,851 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.