1311 Elm St · Bay City, MI 48706

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2001 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2 full bath manufactured home located on an oversized corner lot in The Banks on Bay City’s west side. Built in 2001, offering 1,248 square feet of comfortable living space, this home features an open floor plan with spacious rooms and great natural light throughout. The large primary bedroom includes a private attached bath and walk-in closet. Two additional generously sized bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office setup. Outside, you’ll love the impressive 38x19 XL concrete driveway extending across the front of the 24x24 detached 2.5-car garage, complete with door opener and a sliding glass door le

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• XL CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (approximately 24 x 24) with room for about 2–3 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas service; Gas water heater
• Home design: One-story manufactured residential home (manufactured after 1976); Built in 2001
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Crawl space foundation; Roof type not specified
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Deck; Patio; Porch; Sidewalks; Shed (outbuilding); Corner lot; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Refrigerator; Kitchen on main level (approx. 15 x 12); Kitchen with laminate flooring
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level (bedroom sizes approx. 12 x 12, 12 x 11, and 12'); Bedrooms carpeted
• Flooring: Carpet in living room and bedrooms; Vinyl in dining room; Laminate in kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level; Bathrooms with laminate flooring
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central A/C; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (approx. 9 x 7) with laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $82,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.14%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $33,129
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $89,294
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,283/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $784	-5% $760	+0% $736	+5% $712	+10% $688
Rent	-10% $603	-5% $670	+0% $736	+5% $802	+10% $868
Rate	-1.0pp $779	-0.5pp $757	base $736	+0.5pp $714	+1.0pp $691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Active
2. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-10
   status Active
4. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-14
   status Active
6. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-13
   listed $84,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,283 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,295 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$12/yr (+$1/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,283
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $7,951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,908
• After-tax cash flow: $6,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-14 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,283 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.