1811 Vermilion Rd · Duluth, MN 55803

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,081 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1941 9,583 sqft lot Est $305k · 23% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a mid-century modern home located in friendly, quiet Hunters Park. Built by owners of Duluth's iconic European Bakery, this unique home has an open floor plan, flat roof, and mid-century modern woodwork. Quality is present throughout this three bedroom, two bathroom home; beautiful hardwood floors on the main level; the kitchen has quartz counter tops, original cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. Both bathrooms have heated floors and a jacuzzi tub on the main level. The basement has been completely redone this year with a new subway tile shower, a newly carpeted family room, a clean laundry room. A sauna has been wired and plumbed and just needs outer shell, seating and a stove. The backyard has a deck that looks out over a private, fenced backyard. Perfect if you have a dog. And since there are no deer in the yard, there is a raised-bed garden with a bed of asparagus, rhubarb, hopps, and grapes. From here you can walk a block and be hiking in Tischer Creek or a block more and be at Mount Royal or Duluth Yoga. This house is ideally located to access the best of Duluth.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quartz countertops
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• MID-CENTURY MODERN HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANCE OF NATURAL LIGHT
• ORIGINAL MID-CENTURY WOODWORK
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property

Exterior

• Parking: Detached concrete garage with 1 car space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One story
• Construction: Stucco construction; Flat roof; Built above grade with additional below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Deck; City street frontage; Lot approximately 50 x 190 (0.22 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located downstairs
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating (oil); No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Primary bedroom on main level; Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Congdon Elementary (math 71% / reading 76%, grade A, #41 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 452 students, 20% FRL); Ordean East Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #53 of 258 statewide, top 22%, 989 students, 26% FRL); East High School (math 42% / reading 73%, grade C, #59 of 471 statewide, top 13%, 1,494 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 39% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $272k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $323,398 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,842
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Snively Rd	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,141 (+6%)	22mo	$275,000	$241	54
219 Mygatt Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+7%)	11mo	$325,000	$282	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-54,198
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-38,840
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55803

• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$328 /mo · $3,940/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,103

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $316	-5% $210	+0% $104	+5% $-2	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-24	+0% $104	+5% $231	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $293	-0.5pp $199	base $104	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3780 London Rd Duluth, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1312	$3,485	$2.66	15d	1	1.16mi
2120 London Rd Duluth, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$4,111	$3.78	15d	13	1.33mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $375,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $375,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,940 · $328/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,070 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: +$130/yr (+$11/mo · 3.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$3,940
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,105
• − Management: −$3,105
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$5,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,232
• After-tax cash flow: $2,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 71,097
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 17,662
• Household income: $105,888
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 16% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -363.34%
• Current HPI: 197.6712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+184.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $375,000 LSAR
• 2020-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $272,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-26 Sold (MLS) $272,000 LSAR
• 2020-05-22 Listed $264,900 LSAR
• 2014-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $171,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-29 Sold (MLS) $171,000 LSAR
• 2014-09-29 Sold (MLS) $171,000 RASM
• 2014-09-29 Sold (MLS) $171,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-22 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-15 Listed $167,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-14 Listed $167,900 LSAR
• 2014-08-14 Listed $167,900 RASM
• 2013-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-07 Sold (MLS) $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-09 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-09 Listed $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-12 Listed $184,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-12 Listed $184,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-07 Listed $184,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-07 Listed $184,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-10 Sold (MLS) $185,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-11 Listed $185,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $131,936 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,940 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.