12017 Forest Nook Ct · Live Oak, TX 78233

$139,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1969 8,407 sqft lot $110/sqft · 35% below area Est $215k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom house is a standout opportunity for homeowners looking to build equity or investors seeking a high-potential rental. Tucked away in the highly sought-after Live Oak area, this home sits on a spacious lot and is in need of cosmetics.

Key facts

• 8,407 sq ft lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Live Oak Village

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water system; Public sewer system
• Home design: Pre-owned property; Approximately 57 years old
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Siding exterior with one side masonry

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen about 10 x 10
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom about 10 x 10; Bedroom 2 about 8 x 10; Bedroom 3 about 8 x 10; Bedroom 4 about 8 x 10
• Flooring: Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Gas water heater; Some window coverings remain; One living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.7% in Live Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#211 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ed Franz El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 386 students, 70% FRL); Kitty Hawk Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,237 students, 60% FRL); Judson H S (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,666 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,799 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,055
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: -34.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11914 Welcome	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+0%)	3mo	$179,000	$141	86
11817 Splintered Oak	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+7%)	4mo	$199,999	$148	80
210 Lost Frst	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-6%)	4mo	$175,000	$147	80
12004 Prairie Oak	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+7%)	5mo	$240,000	$177	80
7522 Wishing Oaks	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+2%)	3mo	$245,000	$190	77
7913 Dry Cyn	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+12%)	0mo	$215,000	$151	64
7622 Gnarled Oak Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-6%)	5mo	$221,500	$185	64
12401 Trailing Oaks	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (-10%)	4mo	$210,000	$184	62
117 Lost Frst	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+12%)	4mo	$224,000	$157	60
331 Shin Oak	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+6%)	1mo	$199,000	$149	59
7409 Sage Oak	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+11%)	4mo	$250,000	$178	48
323 Cherrywood	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+11%)	4mo	$257,900	$183	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-17,559
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-20,714
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78233

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,199/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,446

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $194	+0% $154	+5% $114	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $89	+0% $154	+5% $219	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $190	base $154	+0.5pp $118	+1.0pp $81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12005 Prairie Oak St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,495	$1.17	45d	1	0.10mi
161 Lost Forest St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	984	$1,395	$1.42	6d	1	0.19mi
164 Lost Forest St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$2,200	$1.35	25d	1	0.19mi
7917 Oak Forest Dr Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,645	$1.45	25d	1	0.23mi
11702 Welcome Dr Unit Labs Live Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	1107	$1,695	$1.53	23d	1	0.32mi
7607 Sage Oak St Live Oak, TX	3.0	1.0	1013	$1,200	$1.18	6d	1	0.36mi
12602 Moss Hollow St San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,675	$0.96	45d	1	0.40mi
7729 Narrow Pass St Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,000	$1.50	25d	1	0.52mi
7810 Lazy Forest St Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,695	$1.49	12d	1	0.54mi
406 Greycliff Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	16d	1	0.59mi
11205 Champion Oak Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,650	$1.25	4d	1	0.59mi
7236 Rimwood St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,395	$1.12	45d	1	0.65mi
12810 Weeping Oak Trl Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1322	$1,475	$1.12	45d	1	0.67mi
8130 Shin Oak Dr Live Oak, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,115	$2.12	0d	18	0.68mi
7222 Rimwood St Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	45d	1	0.69mi
7220 Rimwood Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,450	$1.17	25d	1	0.70mi
7329 Leading Oaks St Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,750	$1.42	25d	1	0.70mi
7214 Rimwood Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,500	$1.21	25d	1	0.71mi
7208 Savannah Brks Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,450	$1.08	21d	1	0.74mi
7216 Savannah Brks Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,450	$1.08	14d	1	0.74mi
7220 Savannah Brks Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,475	$1.10	25d	1	0.74mi
7503 Savannah Brks Unit 7503 Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	16d	1	0.75mi
8101 Shin Oak Dr Unit 3294 Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,848	$1.30	0d	1	0.76mi
8101 Shin Oak Dr Unit 710 Live Oak, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,400	$1.26	0d	1	0.76mi
7708 Brunning Ct Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,000	$1.16	14d	1	0.77mi
11025 White Sands Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,650	$1.25	6d	1	0.78mi
7822 Savannah Brks Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,375	$1.02	4d	1	0.79mi
13316 Reid Mdws Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,395	$1.04	45d	1	0.83mi
7828 Pat Booker Rd Live Oak, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,873	$1.87	0d	52	0.86mi
12900 E Loop 1604 N Universal City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	903	$1,765	$1.95	5d	12	0.88mi
615 Amistad Blvd Unit NA Universal City, TX	3.0	2.0	1679	$2,200	$1.31	19d	1	0.91mi
165 Palisades Dr Universal City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	711	$1,110	$1.56	0d	26	0.94mi
7855 Kitty Hawk Rd Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,169	$1.23	0d	1	0.97mi
162 Amistad Blvd Universal City, TX	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,525	$0.91	25d	1	0.99mi
7855 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,425	$1.63	22d	17	0.99mi
10743 Mustang Rdg Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,010	$1.08	6d	1	1.03mi
13003 Toepperwein Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1643	$2,448	$1.49	5d	18	1.10mi
2910 Pat Booker Rd Universal City, TX	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,389	$1.28	45d	1	1.16mi
8243 Lone Shadow Trl Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1442	$1,674	$1.16	22d	1	1.17mi
10319 Outlaw Bnd Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,700	$1.22	19d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,999 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,999 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $139,999 New 259-char remark
15. 2026-03-16
    soldstatus
16. 1986-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,199 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,199 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$4,199
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$66
• After-tax cash flow: $1,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — Live Oak

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #5260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Live Oak, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,911
• Household income: $76,421
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1635.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 23% Black 11% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.27%
• Current HPI: 274.943
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.06%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $139,999 LERA
• 2026-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,199 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.