6310 Sheila Rd · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40219

$239,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1958 0.28 ac lot Est $257k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 6310 Shella Road! This spacious brick ranch offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,892 square feet of living space on a generous 0.28-acre lot. Built in 1958, the home features a functional layout with plenty of living space and hardwood floors beneath the existing carpet. Outside, you'll find a large detached garage with electricity, oversized doors, and an additional bathroom, providing excellent space for vehicles, storage, hobbies, or a workshop. The backyard features a large deck with plenty of room for relaxing or entertaining. The home has been cleared out and is ready for its next owner. While cosmetic updates are needed, the property offers strong bones, ample space,

Key facts

• Large deck
• Generous lot
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE DECK
• GENEROUS LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 3 parking spaces; Driveway access; Front entry; See remarks for additional parking details
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story
• Construction: Built in 1958; Brick construction; Shingle roof; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Lot details: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level; Dining area adjacent to the kitchen
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, all on the first floor (including the primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit for heating and one for cooling
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Four closets; No basement; Living room on the main level; Dining area on the main level; Primary bedroom on the main level; Primary bathroom on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rangeland Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #670 of 676 statewide, top 100%, 441 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 56% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 5% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,740 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.62%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,312
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6211 Gayle Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,950 (+3%)	13mo	$270,000	$138	76
4917 Mile Of Sunshine Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,935 (+2%)	3mo	$275,000	$142	65
4877 Charlotte Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,008 (+6%)	8mo	$250,000	$125	60
6802 Tropic Ct	0.59mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,898 (+0%)	4mo	$205,000	$108	58
6811 Copra Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,031 (+7%)	3mo	$252,000	$124	57
6707 Tamarind Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,004 (+6%)	16mo	$275,000	$137	51
5910 Oakdale Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,037 (+8%)	10mo	$261,800	$129	51
6804 Orange Blossom Rd	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,754 (-7%)	11mo	$275,000	$157	50
4907 Glenna Way	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,720 (-9%)	5mo	$205,000	$119	47
4914 Sunday Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,662 (-12%)	13mo	$215,000	$129	40
6206 Hanses Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,782 (-6%)	15mo	$260,000	$146	40
5110 Frey Dr	0.60mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,725 (-9%)	13mo	$235,000	$136	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-30,423
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-18,058
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40219

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,734/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,902

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $214	+0% $147	+5% $79	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $-18	-5% $64	+0% $147	+5% $229	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $208	base $147	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5319 Rangeland Rd Louisville, KY	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1225	$1,810	$1.48	5d	10	0.56mi
7301 Monsey Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1245	$2,048	$1.64	3d	30	0.88mi
6503 Buisson Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,385	$1.25	4d	1	1.05mi
6103 Port Antonio Rd Louisville, KY	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,310	$1.21	17d	1	1.07mi
7901 Bridlewood Pl Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,799	$1.09	5d	1	1.36mi
7901 Bridlewood Pl Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,799	$1.09	13d	1	1.36mi
4903 De Priest Ct Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1283	$1,850	$1.44	12d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $239,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,734 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,063 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 19.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,734
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$2,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$554
• After-tax cash flow: $2,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 39,909
• Household income: $55,720
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.92%
• Current HPI: 264.3235
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $239,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,734 · +25.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.