15477 Ballantree Ln · Penn Valley, CA 95949

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,184 sqft · Manufactured public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1995 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 15477 Ballantree in Grass Valley. Situated on a peaceful parcel surrounded by natural beauty, this property offers tremendous potential for redevelopment. The existing home requires substantial repair and may not qualify for traditional financing. Ideal for contractors, investors, or buyers looking to build new and customize from the ground up. Value is primarily in the land and location. Utilities on site (buyer to verify). Bring your vision and explore the possibilities.

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 100 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 5 acres
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Utilities details not specified; Electricity not specified; Sewer not specified; Water source not specified; Irrigation source not specified
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential, tract); Single-story; Built in 1995; Street address: 15477 Ballantree Ln, Grass Valley, CA
• Construction: Roof details not specified; Year built 1995
• Exterior features: No private pool or spa; Lot features not specified; Long gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Tile countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating details not specified; Cooling details not specified
• Interior features: Front porch; Tile countertops in kitchen; Living room and dining room on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.8% in Penn Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,129 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $250k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.67%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-12,041
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $26,052
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,120/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,015

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $589	-5% $518	+0% $448	+5% $377	+10% $306
Rent	-10% $244	-5% $346	+0% $448	+5% $550	+10% $652
Rate	-1.0pp $574	-0.5pp $511	base $448	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 82 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 81 DOM
18. 1998-04-03
    soldstatus $112,500
19. 1998-01-30
    soldstatus $166,096
20. 1990-03-19
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,120 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,120 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,120
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,478
• − Management: −$2,478
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $1,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$331
• After-tax cash flow: $5,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Penn Valley

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1129
• US rank: #25672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+332.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 1998-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 1998-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $166,096 Public Records
• 1990-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,120 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.