3824 133rd St · Lubbock, TX 79423

$399,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,102 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 405 Days on market

Built 2015 9,846 sqft lot $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 3824 133rd Street, a well-maintained duplex located in Kelsey Park. Each side of this property features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a private fenced backyard —making it perfect for owner-occupants, investors, or short-term rental opportunities. With modern finishes, open-concept layouts, and isolated primary suites, both units offer comfortable, low-maintenance living. This duplex is ideally situated in the desirable Lubbock-Cooper ISD and just minutes from shopping, dining, and easy access to the Loop and Highway 87. Whether you're expanding your investment portfolio or looking for a smart house-hack opportunity, this property offers strong rental potential and lasting value. Also perfect for owner occupancy! Don't miss your chance to own a turnkey duplex in one of Lubbock's most sought-after areas!

Key facts

• Open concept layouts
• Modern finishes
• 9,846 sq ft lot

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED DUPLEX
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• MODERN FINISHES
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUTS
• ISOLATED PRIMARY SUITES
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $282/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $351k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,377/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 1385% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 405 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 405 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-32,432
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $3,243
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$598 /mo · $7,176/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$919
• Net cashflow: $563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,664

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 82%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$4,378
Total (2 units)			$4,377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2925 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	5.0	2.5	2135	$2,495	$1.17	13d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 405 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 404 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 403 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 402 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 400 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 399 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 397 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 396 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 395 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 394 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 391 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 390 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 389 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 388 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 387 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 386 DOM
17. 2025-11-16
    price $399,000 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Welcome to 3824 133rd Street, a well-maintained duplex located in Kelsey Park. Each side of this property features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a private fenced backyard —making it perfect for owner-occupants, investors, or short-term rental opportunities. With modern finishes, open-concept layouts, and isolated primary suites, both units offer comfortable, low-maintenance living. This duplex is ideally situated in the desirable Lubbock-Cooper ISD and just minutes from shopping, dining, and easy access to the Loop and Highway 87. Whether you're expanding your investment portfolio or looking for a smart house-hack opportunity, this property offers strong rental potential and lasting value. Also perfect for owner occupancy! Don't miss your chance to own a turnkey duplex in one of Lubbock's most sought-after areas!

18. 2025-05-09
    listed $405,000 Active 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Welcome to 3824 133rd Street, a well-maintained duplex located in Kelsey Park. Each side of this property features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a private fenced backyard —making it perfect for owner-occupants, investors, or short-term rental opportunities. With modern finishes, open-concept layouts, and isolated primary suites, both units offer comfortable, low-maintenance living. This duplex is ideally situated in the desirable Lubbock-Cooper ISD and just minutes from shopping, dining, and easy access to the Loop and Highway 87. Whether you're expanding your investment portfolio or looking for a smart house-hack opportunity, this property offers strong rental potential and lasting value. Also perfect for owner occupancy! Don't miss your chance to own a turnkey duplex in one of Lubbock's most sought-after areas!

19. 2025-01-17
    historical $1,600
20. 2024-12-28
    listed $1,600
21. 2022-04-18
    soldstatus
22. 2020-03-18
    soldstatus
23. 2020-03-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,176 · $598/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,302 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$7,176
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,202
• − Management: −$4,202
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable income: $536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$129
• After-tax cash flow: $6,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+24837.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $399,000 LARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed $405,000 LARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2024-12-28 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2022-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+21.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,176 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.