2423 31st Street Ensley · Birmingham, AL 35208

$28,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1920 4,356 sqft lot Est $54k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor/Handyman - This is your opportunity to bring this charming property back to it's original glory. The potential is endless.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 160 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($941 rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.9% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Minor Elementary School (math 0% / reading 14%, grade F, #601 of 627 statewide, top 98%, 454 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $194 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $840 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.18%
• DSCR: 4.75
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,288
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2136 47th St W	0.46mi	2/1.0	892 (-5%)	4mo	$12,000	$13	67
2301 27th St	0.27mi	2/1.0	917 (-2%)	23mo	$53,000	$58	65
2915 Avenue X	0.13mi	2/1.0	996 (+6%)	24mo	$66,000	$66	64
2716 29th St	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,032 (+10%)	2mo	$48,000	$47	62
3102 Border St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,019 (+9%)	1mo	$75,000	$74	53
1825 Madison Ave SW	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	887 (-5%)	15mo	$117,000	$132	48
2034 Avenue V	0.65mi	2/1.0	972 (+4%)	20mo	$27,000	$28	46
1925 Woodland Ave SW	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,011 (+8%)	14mo	$21,000	$21	44
1881 Fulton Ave SW	0.72mi	2/1.0	870 (-7%)	17mo	$72,000	$83	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $34,694
• Equity at exit: $4,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.3%
• Equity multiple: 13.01×
• Total profit: $94,126
• Equity at exit: $2,421

Cash invested: $7,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35208

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$147
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $245

Max offer price $28,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,000
• Closing costs: $840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3012 Avenue X Unit C Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	620	$650	$1.05	11d	1	0.11mi
2329 30th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	917	$990	$1.08	23d	1	0.12mi
2421 29th Street Ensley Unit C Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$703	$0.74	23d	1	0.14mi
2037 26th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1074	$995	$0.93	43d	1	0.39mi
132 17th St SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	738	$945	$1.28	43d	1	0.64mi
2916 24th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	850	$590	$0.69	23d	1	0.66mi
2621 20th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1117	$1,295	$1.16	43d	1	0.67mi
1933 Saint Charles Ct SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1106	$1,050	$0.95	23d	1	0.69mi
1621 2nd Ct W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,095	$1.02	43d	1	0.73mi
2661 Bush Blvd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,200	$1.17	43d	1	0.76mi
4813 Court S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,125	$1.01	43d	1	0.76mi
1616 28th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1081	$1,100	$1.02	43d	1	0.78mi
1609 Pike Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	820	$800	$0.98	19d	5	0.85mi
2610 Avenue P Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1014	$850	$0.84	43d	1	0.86mi
1532 31st Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	839	$850	$1.01	43d	1	0.88mi
1521 27th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	43d	1	0.90mi
2028 Lee Ter SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	884	$695	$0.79	43d	1	0.90mi
208 22nd St SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,050	$1.13	3d	1	0.92mi
1528 34th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	972	$1,073	$1.10	43d	1	0.92mi
1501 29th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	772	$800	$1.04	23d	1	0.96mi
4724 Court R Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1016	$895	$0.88	14d	1	0.96mi
1521 22nd Street Ensley Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$875	$1.17	23d	1	0.99mi
1540 42nd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	899	$1,037	$1.15	43d	1	1.01mi
521 16th St SW Unit 523 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	43d	1	1.01mi
1520 41st Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,195	$1.12	43d	1	1.02mi
2216 Lee Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	902	$900	$1.00	23d	1	1.04mi
1316 Court R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	904	$900	$1.00	10d	1	1.04mi
1604 44th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	23d	1	1.06mi
1417 34th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1103	$1,025	$0.93	43d	1	1.07mi
4929 Avenue R Unit R Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	962	$950	$0.99	43d	1	1.09mi
1429 Warrior Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1036	$850	$0.82	16d	1	1.09mi
1624 19th Street Ensley Apt B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	676	$875	$1.29	23d	1	1.09mi
1420 Warrior Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1061	$1,050	$0.99	43d	1	1.10mi
219 12th St W Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	800	$799	$1.00	23d	1	1.10mi
1306 Avenue R Unit R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	980	$950	$0.97	43d	1	1.11mi
1306 Avenue R Unit R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	980	$950	$0.97	3d	1	1.11mi
2519 Saint Charles Ave SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	990	$975	$0.98	44d	1	1.12mi
1228 Fulton Ave SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	1.17mi
1306 35th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,173	$1.07	3d	1	1.18mi
1001 21st Street Ensley Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	16d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-01-18
   price $28,000
3. 2024-10-08
   listed $38,000 Active
4. 1989-03-21
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,568
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$904
• − Management: −$904
• − Depreciation: −$815
• Taxable income: $6,544
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,571
• After-tax cash flow: $5,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 13,412
• Household income: $38,561
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 573.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% White 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.99%
• Current HPI: 153.414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.24%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-17 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-01-18 Price Changed $28,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-10-08 Listed $38,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1989-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records