1300 16th St · Lynchburg, VA 24504

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,622 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1922 10,555 sqft lot $108/sqft · 32% above area Est $155k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3BR/2BA home built in the early 1900's, is solid with a lot of the original character still visible throughout the home , but with some updates over the years. The current owner has called this home for 40 years. This two story charming, cozy, & spacious home offers a large main level living room with a fireplace, a separate dining room, kitchen, separate laundry/mudroom area, a half bath, & a huge foyer. The 2nd level offers spacious bedrooms, with a full bathroom on this level. Hardwood floors throughout, with some updated vinyl plank flooring as well. The full unfinished basement offers a ton of potential to be finished & expanded. Paved driveway for off-street parking as well, both a large covered porch, & a very huge deck overlooking the backyard with plenty of space for kids & pets! Two zone heat pump system, replacement windows, 200 amp electrical, are a few of the many updates within the last few years. This truly is a home away from home! Come see for yourself!

Key facts

• Huge foyer
• Separate dining room
• Spacious bedrooms

Tags

• LARGE MAIN LEVEL LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY MUDROOM AREA
• HUGE FOYER
• SPACIOUS BEDROOMS
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($826/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sheffield Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 445 students, 91% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 61% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $175k implies a 797% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,087
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 12.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1006 Buchanan St	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,645 (+1%)	2mo	$239,000	$145	71
1109 Harrison St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,650 (+2%)	4mo	$265,000	$161	69
1011 Polk St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,547 (-5%)	2mo	$115,000	$74	69
1312 Taylor St	0.20mi	2/— (-1)	1,463 (-10%)	4mo	$25,000	$17	66
1206 10th St	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,605 (-1%)	6mo	$199,900	$125	65
1321 Taylor St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (+11%)	7mo	$136,000	$75	61
1027 Knight St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,387 (-14%)	6mo	$95,000	$68	60
2032 Poplar St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,507 (-7%)	4mo	$204,000	$135	60
1706 Union St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,720 (+6%)	6mo	$85,000	$49	60
1531 Augusta St. St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,513 (-7%)	4mo	$192,000	$127	53
509 Franklin St St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+15%)	2mo	$180,000	$97	50
713 Polk St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+13%)	3mo	$105,000	$57	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,509
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,649
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24504

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,551 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,189/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,463

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $118	+0% $69	+5% $19	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $8	+0% $69	+5% $130	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $113	base $69	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1308 16th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	15d	1	0.02mi
1521 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,195	$0.89	23d	1	0.08mi
1518 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	15d	1	0.11mi
1514 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	15d	1	0.12mi
1415 Floyd St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.15mi
1701 Grace St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	2173	$1,495	$0.69	15d	1	0.21mi
1219 Pierce St Unit 1221 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1168	$825	$0.71	15d	1	0.32mi
1110 11th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	2000	$1,450	$0.72	15d	1	0.38mi
1105 Fillmore St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	45d	1	0.39mi
1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$1,167	$1.04	23d	6	0.40mi
1316 Harrison St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1535	$1,500	$0.98	45d	1	0.44mi
900 Polk St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$895	$0.81	15d	1	0.55mi
812 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,950	$1.04	15d	1	0.55mi
1008 8th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,795	$1.36	23d	1	0.61mi
800 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1714	$1,295	$0.76	45d	1	0.61mi
2269 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	45d	1	0.69mi
1500 Main St Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	1182	$1,600	$1.35	15d	6	0.70mi
710 Grady St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1872	$795	$0.42	15d	1	0.71mi
601 Jackson St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1138	$1,595	$1.40	45d	1	0.75mi
512 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1340	$1,295	$0.97	23d	1	0.79mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	45d	1	0.87mi
403 Grove St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	45d	1	0.88mi
2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	45d	1	0.94mi
630 Park Ln Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.5	1434	$1,895	$1.32	15d	1	0.98mi
320 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,595	$0.92	45d	1	1.03mi
209 Munford St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,497	$1.05	46d	1	1.07mi
1705 1st St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	23d	1	1.11mi
216 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1114	$995	$0.89	45d	1	1.12mi
507 Victoria Ave Unit 507 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,700	$1.15	23d	1	1.42mi
106 Yeardley Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1060	$895	$0.84	23d	1	1.43mi
2920 Richmond St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1472	$1,695	$1.15	23d	1	1.45mi
2205 Mayflower Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $175,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-04-17
   price $175,000 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   This 3BR/2BA home built in the early 1900's, is solid with a lot of the original character still visible throughout the home , but with some updates over the years. The current owner has called this home for 40 years. This two story charming, cozy, & spacious home offers a large main level living room with a fireplace, a separate dining room, kitchen, separate laundry/mudroom area, a half bath, & a huge foyer. The 2nd level offers spacious bedrooms, with a full bathroom on this level. Hardwood floors throughout, with some updated vinyl plank flooring as well. The full unfinished basement offers a ton of potential to be finished & expanded. Paved driveway for off-street parking as well, both a large covered porch, & a very huge deck overlooking the backyard with plenty of space for kids & pets! Two zone heat pump system, replacement windows, 200 amp electrical, are a few of the many updates within the last few years. This truly is a home away from home! Come see for yourself!

9. 2026-03-10
   price $190,000 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   This 3BR/2BA home built in the early 1900's, is solid with a lot of the original character still visible throughout the home , but with some updates over the years. The current owner has called this home for 40 years. This two story charming, cozy, & spacious home offers a large main level living room with a fireplace, a separate dining room, kitchen, separate laundry/mudroom area, a half bath, & a huge foyer. The 2nd level offers spacious bedrooms, with a full bathroom on this level. Hardwood floors throughout, with some updated vinyl plank flooring as well. The full unfinished basement offers a ton of potential to be finished & expanded. Paved driveway for off-street parking as well, both a large covered porch, & a very huge deck overlooking the backyard with plenty of space for kids & pets! Two zone heat pump system, replacement windows, 200 amp electrical, are a few of the many updates within the last few years. This truly is a home away from home! Come see for yourself!

10. 2026-02-10
    price $205,000 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    This 3BR/2BA home built in the early 1900's, is solid with a lot of the original character still visible throughout the home , but with some updates over the years. The current owner has called this home for 40 years. This two story charming, cozy, & spacious home offers a large main level living room with a fireplace, a separate dining room, kitchen, separate laundry/mudroom area, a half bath, & a huge foyer. The 2nd level offers spacious bedrooms, with a full bathroom on this level. Hardwood floors throughout, with some updated vinyl plank flooring as well. The full unfinished basement offers a ton of potential to be finished & expanded. Paved driveway for off-street parking as well, both a large covered porch, & a very huge deck overlooking the backyard with plenty of space for kids & pets! Two zone heat pump system, replacement windows, 200 amp electrical, are a few of the many updates within the last few years. This truly is a home away from home! Come see for yourself!

11. 2026-01-14
    listed $220,000 Active 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    This 3BR/2BA home built in the early 1900's, is solid with a lot of the original character still visible throughout the home , but with some updates over the years. The current owner has called this home for 40 years. This two story charming, cozy, & spacious home offers a large main level living room with a fireplace, a separate dining room, kitchen, separate laundry/mudroom area, a half bath, & a huge foyer. The 2nd level offers spacious bedrooms, with a full bathroom on this level. Hardwood floors throughout, with some updated vinyl plank flooring as well. The full unfinished basement offers a ton of potential to be finished & expanded. Paved driveway for off-street parking as well, both a large covered porch, & a very huge deck overlooking the backyard with plenty of space for kids & pets! Two zone heat pump system, replacement windows, 200 amp electrical, are a few of the many updates within the last few years. This truly is a home away from home! Come see for yourself!

12. 1985-02-28
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,189 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$21/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,189
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$510
• After-tax cash flow: $1,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 9,632
• Household income: $52,571
• Rent vs Own: 46.4% rent · 53.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 552.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 40% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.39%
• Current HPI: 229.4423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+797.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $175,000 LMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $190,000 LMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $205,000 LMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $220,000 LMLS
• 1985-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,189 · +60.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.