29385 Providence Way · Hayward, CA 94544

$259,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $355k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious triple wide home in New England Village with 2bd/2ba & over 1,800sf of living space. Featuring open kitchen with large island & s/s appliances and a primary suite w/ huge closet and bathroom w/ dual vanities, soaking tub, & separate shower. Additional highlights include family room with bar area, separate dining area w/ built in hutch, laundry room with W/ D, recessed lighting, laminate flooring, large storage shed, & A/C. Enjoy the additional community amenities such as the pool, spa, & clubhouse just a few steps away. Don't miss this exceptional opportunity to enjoy the relaxed, comfortable, low-maintenance living in one of Hayward's most desirable 55+

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Soaking tub
• Primary suite

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• PRIMARY SUITE
• HUGE CLOSET
• DUAL VANITIES
• SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community (New England Villa); Clubhouse; Community pool and spa; BBQ area; Recreation facilities and activities available; Close to golf course; Pets allowed (cats and dogs allowed with number/size limits and upon approval)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 or more spaces); Covered tandem parking
• Utilities: Community in-ground pool; Heated spa
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Triple wide model (Victoria Manor)
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Carpeted patio/porch; Covered deck; Shed(s); Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone countertops; Kitchen island; Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Updated kitchen features; Wet bar
• Bedrooms: Includes 1 bedroom at street level; Primary bedroom suite on street level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bath with stall shower, tub with jets, and double vanity; Other bath with shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated kitchen; Wet bar; Dining area; Family room; Living room; Main entry; Laundry facility; Window screens and coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $796 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,800

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.64%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $354,510
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29372 Providence Way #111	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,776 (-2%)	3mo	$289,000	$163	93
29341 Sandburg Way	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+2%)	2mo	$425,000	$229	84
29286 Whalebone Way	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,868 (+3%)	4mo	$200,000	$107	82
29223 Whalebone Way #404	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,818 (0%)	7mo	$220,000	$121	78
29360 Middleborough Way #159	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,670 (-8%)	9mo	$345,000	$207	78
29270 Sandburg Way #234	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,683 (-7%)	7mo	$345,000	$205	76
29266 Nantucket Way	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,670 (-8%)	1mo	$190,000	$114	76
29330 Middleborough Way	0.06mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,640 (-10%)	2mo	$319,000	$195	70
29046 Rochester Way	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,600 (-12%)	8mo	$267,000	$167	60
1400 Buckingham Way	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-12%)	6mo	$385,000	$240	54
40 Ranchero Way #40	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,728 (-5%)	8mo	$289,000	$167	52
1447 Buckingham Way	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,652 (-9%)	9mo	$386,000	$234	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $7,303
• Equity at exit: $38,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $66,313
• Equity at exit: $22,463

Cash invested: $72,744 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94544

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,473 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,897/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$729
• Net cashflow: $796

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,465

Max offer price $259,800

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,950
• Closing costs: $7,794
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Notion Way Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1718	$4,250	$2.47	43d	1	0.71mi
28187 Karn Dr Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1335	$3,300	$2.47	5d	1	0.75mi
206 Span Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	3.5	1888	$2,600	$1.38	43d	1	0.76mi
29163 Dixon St Hayward, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$2,995	$2.72	1d	5	0.86mi
376 Line St Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	1286	$3,500	$2.72	1d	1	0.91mi
29384 Hub Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1684	$3,950	$2.35	1d	1	0.97mi
29384 Hub Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1684	$3,950	$2.35	3d	1	0.97mi
27703 Persimmon Dr Hayward, CA	3.0	3.0	1549	$3,695	$2.39	43d	1	1.17mi
2901 Sorrento Way Union City, CA	3.0	2.5	1869	$5,000	$2.68	1d	1	1.24mi
28168 Mission Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1196	$3,947	$3.30	1d	9	1.25mi
981 Cheryl Ann Cir #40 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$3,800	$3.05	43d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,800 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,800 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,800 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 679-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $259,800 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,553
• − Property taxes: −$3,897
• − Insurance: −$3,123
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,334
• − Management: −$3,334
• − Depreciation: −$7,558
• Taxable income: $5,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,411
• After-tax cash flow: $8,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 76,947
• Household income: $107,785
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2573.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Asian 28% Two or more races 13% White 11% Black 7% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -907.12%
• Current HPI: 315.6082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.58%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $259,800 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-02-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-02-06 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-01-14 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2012-01-13 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR