4707 Black Lake Belmore Rd SW #7 · Tumwater, WA 98512

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1967

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lakeside living is calling! Dive into this adorable 2-bed, 1-bath manufactured home in a lovely 55+ community on beautiful Black Lake. At 528 sq ft, this cozy gem is perfectly designed for easy living with stylish laminate wood flooring throughout and a modern heat pump for year-round comfort. Covered from porch. Fenced yard space and a covered storage area for your boat or additional items. The best part? The lifestyle! Enjoy private community beach access to Black Lake right from the park. Launch a kayak, fish from the dock, or take a swim—it’s your own slice of waterfront paradise! Whether you’re looking for a quiet retreat or an active community, this move-in-ready hom

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Lakeside living
• Modern heat pump

Tags

• LAKESIDE LIVING
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• MODERN HEAT PUMP
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED YARD SPACE
• COVERED STORAGE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area: 528; Lot unit reported in square feet; Lot size approx 0.0026 acres
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Located in Timberline park; Park approved for sale; Senior community; Pets allowed; Land lease: $950

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water (community provided); Community sewer (community provided); Power provided by PSE
• Home design: Manufactured home (Single Wide); One story; Model 48EC12; Has a view; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Metal/Vinyl construction materials; Metal roof; Built as a manufactured house
• Exterior features: Metal/Vinyl exterior; Community waterfront/private beach access; Common area and recreational area in park

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Forced air cooling; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Dining room; Living room; Has heating and cooling (Forced air and Heat Pump)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Tie down foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.16%
• DSCR: 3.19
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $38,616
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $94,708
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,564
• − Management: −$1,564
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $9,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,174
• After-tax cash flow: $7,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $127 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.