4550 Bull Rd #77 · Dover, PA 17315

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2008 Fair condition $80/sqft · 65% below area $425/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2008
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present; Accessible via 2+ exit points
• Financial info: Tax details and assessed values excluded
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $425; HOA fees include water and sewer; Ground rent payment $425 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: 2 off-street parking spaces; Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: Community water; Community septic tank; Electric hot water; 100 amp electrical service; Heating fuel: natural gas and owned propane
• Home design: Manufactured home; Entry level and stories not specified; Ground rent ownership interest
• Construction: Vinyl and aluminum siding; Architectural shingle roof; Above-grade and below-grade structures present; No basement
• Exterior features: Cleared, level lot; Not in a federal flood zone; Road maintenance by HOA; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Excellent condition; Assessor-listed living area
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.1% in Dover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#680 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dover Area SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #232 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.02%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,298
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -64.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
704 E Butter Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,056 (0%)	10mo	$290,000	$275	63
4550 Bull Rd Lot 62	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+9%)	17mo	$60,000	$52	58
5010 Bull Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,072 (+2%)	3mo	$275,000	$257	57
920 Butter Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-4%)	15mo	$239,900	$238	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $2,956
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $24,887
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17315

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,607 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$425
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,281

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $425 · $5,100/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $84,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $84,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 309-char remark
4. 2026-05-08
   listed $84,900 Active 309-char remark
5. 2026-05-05
   historical $84,900 309-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,543
• − Management: −$1,543
• − HOA: −$5,100
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $2,177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$522
• After-tax cash flow: $2,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including a new roof and fresh paint, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of significant wear
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major landscaping — Needs trimming and maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both roof repair — A new roof significantly boosts the home's value and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of significant wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Needs trimming and maintenance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both roof repair — A new roof significantly boosts the home's value and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4207680
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,418
• Composite: 40.44/100
• National rank: #3725
• State rank: #232 of 539 in PA

Livability — Dover

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #6649

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 26,434

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.65%
• Current HPI: 247.2403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $84,900 BRIGHT MLS