1500 Gates St · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1952 0.31 ac lot Est $298k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

For Comp Purposes Only! House needs complete renovation!

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sheffield Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 445 students, 91% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $165k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.47%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,116
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1524 Liggates Rd	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,388 (+1%)	3mo	$278,000	$116	70
1523 Radcliff Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	2,172 (-8%)	11mo	$250,000	$115	61
4369 Fort Ave	0.45mi	3/3.0	2,309 (-2%)	10mo	$284,000	$123	60
1209 Mckinney Ave	0.25mi	3/4.0	2,626 (+11%)	3mo	$240,000	$91	58
1009 Randolph Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,084 (-12%)	9mo	$265,400	$127	51
5621 Fort Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,343 (-1%)	13mo	$275,000	$117	51
1200 Heath Avenue Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,209 (-7%)	2mo	$287,000	$130	50
913 Johnson Rd	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,690 (+14%)	4mo	$250,000	$93	48
4307 Tremont St	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,198 (-7%)	13mo	$295,900	$135	48
1128 Heath Ave	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,148 (-9%)	2mo	$315,000	$147	42
1137 Rhode Island Ave	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,697 (+14%)	6mo	$339,000	$126	40
3824 Cambria St	0.69mi	3/3.0	2,665 (+13%)	5mo	$350,000	$131	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $529
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $47,723
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,114/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1309 Radcliff Ave Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.5	1658	$1,725	$1.04	44d	1	0.24mi
1116 Chestnut Hill Dr Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	13d	1	0.50mi
1116 Chestnut Hill Dr Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1818	$1,895	$1.04	44d	1	0.50mi
206 Connecticut Ave Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.5	2180	$1,650	$0.76	21d	1	0.87mi
913 Sandusky Dr Lynchburg, VA	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,200	$1.00	13d	1	0.97mi
4624 Ferncliff Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	2064	$1,700	$0.82	44d	1	1.25mi
310 Yeardley Ave Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.5	1888	$1,800	$0.95	21d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 1991-05-15
   soldstatus $60,000
2. 1952-02-05
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,114 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,114 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,114
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$440
• After-tax cash flow: $3,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 1991-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1952-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,114 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.